Results 1 to 15 of 118

Thread: EPF 2016 dividend

Hybrid View

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Location
    豐平峽
    Posts
    1,058

    EPF 2016 dividend

    EPF is expected to declare the dividend rate for 2016 this weekend.

    Here are the EPF dividend rates for the past seven years :

    2009: 5.65%
    2010: 5.80%
    2011: 6.00%
    2012: 6.15%
    2013: 6.35%
    2014: 6.75%
    2015 :6.40%


    " EPF can be expected to declare a dividend rate of close to six per cent despite these challenges. Market analysts said this would be a decent return to the contributors. Analysts say EPF's dividend would be relatively better than other domestic funds, driven by its foreign assets which, although constitute 28-29 per cent of its investment portfolio, would account for 39-40 per cent of the income."

    http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v8...php?id=1329809

  2. #2
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Wild2West
    Posts
    19,115
    Any dividend above 6% is great

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Klang
    Posts
    335
    My 2 sen’s worth.

    There are some parameters we already know. Others of course we can make an educated guess.

    What we know is that asset under management by EPF is around 712 bio at end Sept 2016. We also know around 25% is invested overseas and guess what happened to our MYR? MYR went from 4.1385 to 4.4862, a 8.4% move. All things equal, 25% of one’s asset oversea with 8.4% FX gain should net us a gain of 2.1% in overall value.
    There is also the fact that around 41% of AUM is in equities. We all know of the Trump effect in Dec which rallied all equities in general.
    If I were to make a guess, it should be above 6.4%. Some earlier calculations I made pointed to possibility of even above 7% if the overseas investment came in strongly.

    Of course, EPF has the right to reserve some of the gains, whether realized or not, for future purposes. We also do not know what EPF actually invested except in a very broad basis.

    Nonetheless, all this is just qualitative analysis for fun on a Friday after lunch time where I am too lazy to go out for lunch under the hot sun. I did work out the numbers but there is really no point looking into that. We shall know the result this weekend latest as EPF website states that kiosk is down this weekend, starting 4pm. A big enough hint rite?

    :: This year also is a potential Election year for Malaysia. Would the government give a bad dividend if they can give all out? Why reserve too much for future government to take credit?

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Location
    豐平峽
    Posts
    1,058
    Quote Originally Posted by IanQ View Post
    ... What we know is that asset under management by EPF is around 712 bio at end Sept 2016. We also know around 25% is invested overseas and guess what happened to our MYR? MYR went from 4.1385 to 4.4862, a 8.4% move. All things equal, 25% of one’s asset oversea with 8.4% FX gain should net us a gain of 2.1% in overall value. ...
    I'm positive the overall net gain from forex will be higher than 2.1% as the percentage of income contribution from EPF overseas investment is bigger than 25%..

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Dec 2000
    Location
    https://twitter.com/#!/hurricanemax
    Posts
    7,838
    min 6.5% ..No rocket science to keep the Cina Pendatang happy...

    BTW, a private retail 'short term' 7yr bond for a 'loan provider' is offered yesterday at 6-6.5% dividend. Cap guaranteed too. Apa lagi Cina mahu?

    p/s it would have been 6.65% if the EPF executive staff had been flying in & out of Malaise, using economy class MAS or AAsiaX instead of private jets.
    in luv with bikes...in lust with AphroditeS AWAS! Suspek is an Avid procurer to myths, lies, legends, folklores, i-ching, rumors, misinformation, cakap-ayam, spɹoʍ uʍop ǝpısdn puɐ˙˙DLL .
    p/s Take all the above with a XL salted duck egg, wash down with 2fingers of sodium hypochoride, and suck on to a pebble size tmn negara Rock salt

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    USJ
    Posts
    955
    Quote Originally Posted by opulant View Post
    I'm positive the overall net gain from forex will be higher than 2.1% as the percentage of income contribution from EPF overseas investment is bigger than 25%..
    that is you assume they sell everything in oversea and dispatch the money back, how likely is that?
    Do Unto Others

    "Possessions, outward success, publicity, luxury -- to me, these have always been contemptible. I believe that a simple and unassuming manner of life is best for everyone, best for both the body and the mind." --- Albert Einstein

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Klang
    Posts
    335
    Quote Originally Posted by clfoo View Post
    that is you assume they sell everything in oversea and dispatch the money back, how likely is that?
    There is no need to take profit (ie sell their investments) oversea and remit the cash back. As long as they can do a “mark-to-market” and keep some reserve for any slippage, it counts as gain or loss. Since EPF invests mainly in liquid, exchange traded stuff, they can do mtm on most of their investments.

    Btw, being EPF, one of their primary criteria for equity investment would also be equities that pay dividends. We can count on that to come in as well.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Location
    豐平峽
    Posts
    1,058
    Quote Originally Posted by clfoo View Post
    that is you assume they sell everything in oversea and dispatch the money back, how likely is that?
    I'm talking about income contribution, not asset divestment. I think you have missed my point by miles....

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Location
    豐平峽
    Posts
    1,058
    Quote Originally Posted by opulant View Post
    EPF is expected to declare the dividend rate for 2016 this weekend.

    Here are the EPF dividend rates for the past seven years :

    2009: 5.65%
    2010: 5.80%
    2011: 6.00%
    2012: 6.15%
    2013: 6.35%
    2014: 6.75%
    2015 :6.40%


    " EPF can be expected to declare a dividend rate of close to six per cent despite these challenges. Market analysts said this would be a decent return to the contributors. Analysts say EPF's dividend would be relatively better than other domestic funds, driven by its foreign assets which, although constitute 28-29 per cent of its investment portfolio, would account for 39-40 per cent of the income."

    http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v8...php?id=1329809
    Dividend rate for 2016 is 5.70%.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Location
    豐平峽
    Posts
    1,058
    My expectation is 6.1%. I think the net impairment of 8.17 billion is the main reason of lower dividend. Of course, in anticipating of a worse 2017, keeping some of the 2016 income as not to look terribly bad in 2017 dividend payout can be the reason too.

    " As at 31 December 2016, a total of 48.58% of the EPF investment asset was invested in fixed income instruments and 42.33% in Equities, while the remaining 4.03% and 5.06% were in Real Estate & Infrastructure and Money Market Instruments respectively. Therefore, it is natural that the EPF’s investment performance to be skewed towards fixed income returns. In accordance with the Malaysian Financial Reporting Standards (MFRS 139), the EPF is required to recognise net impairment amounting to RM8.17 billion, compared with RM3.07 billion in 2015 to reflect the lower equity prices, particularly in the domestic banking sector and oil & gas sectors in both the domestic and foreign markets. "


    http://www.kwsp.gov.my/portal/en/new...etailPage=true

  11. #11
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Wild2West
    Posts
    19,115
    Quote Originally Posted by opulant View Post
    Dividend rate for 2016 is 5.70%.
    I had expected more during this election year.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Dec 2000
    Location
    https://twitter.com/#!/hurricanemax
    Posts
    7,838
    Quote Originally Posted by Naka View Post
    I had expected more during this election year.
    YUP! fully agree. Looks like they are saving some & more for election bribe$...They have now truly pi$$ing me off...and a big chunk i$ coming off for 6% coupon.
    in luv with bikes...in lust with AphroditeS AWAS! Suspek is an Avid procurer to myths, lies, legends, folklores, i-ching, rumors, misinformation, cakap-ayam, spɹoʍ uʍop ǝpısdn puɐ˙˙DLL .
    p/s Take all the above with a XL salted duck egg, wash down with 2fingers of sodium hypochoride, and suck on to a pebble size tmn negara Rock salt

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    Puchong
    Posts
    2,601
    Quote Originally Posted by tupai View Post
    YUP! fully agree. Looks like they are saving some & more for election bribe$...They have now truly pi$$ing me off...and a big chunk i$ coming off for 6% coupon.
    They are not bothered about you, since you are in a "gone case" seat. In fact they would want to put more people like you into the constituency

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Location
    豐平峽
    Posts
    1,058
    Quote Originally Posted by tupai View Post
    ....and a big chunk i$ coming off for 6% coupon.
    I have done calculations before. It does not make much difference.

    My bottom line is : minimum 5.5% for EPF, 6.0% for coupon for n years. (n easily 7 or more).

    Here is a simple example.

    Assume 2.1m. The max you can withdraw (50-55 years old) is 30% which is 630k

    6% coupon for 7 years
    37,800
    37,800
    37,800
    37,800
    37,800
    37,800
    37,800
    264,600

    Balance of EPF @ 5.5% compounded for 7 years
    80,850
    85,297
    89,988
    94,937
    100,159
    105,668
    111,479
    Total interest 668,378


    Total combined interest after 7 years is 932,978

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Location
    豐平峽
    Posts
    1,058
    Now, if 2.1m is compounded @ 5.5% for 7 years..

    115,500
    121,853
    128,554
    135,625
    143,084
    150,954
    159,256
    954,826

    Total interest after 7 years is 954,826.

    Of course, the risk is EPF have to pay at least 5.5% for the period of 7 years. For the period of 2009 to 2016, the annualized dividend rate is 6.11 %.


    p/s : The 2.1m is a hypothetical number for easy calculation. You can substitute the number with other numbers to suit your scenario, the outcome would be the same.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •