EPF 2016 dividend

[opulant]

EPF is expected to declare the dividend rate for 2016 this weekend.

Here are the EPF dividend rates for the past seven years :

2009: 5.65%
2010: 5.80%
2011: 6.00%
2012: 6.15%
2013: 6.35%
2014: 6.75%
2015 :6.40%


" EPF can be expected to declare a dividend rate of close to six per cent despite these challenges. Market analysts said this would be a decent return to the contributors. Analysts say EPF's dividend would be relatively better than other domestic funds, driven by its foreign assets which, although constitute 28-29 per cent of its investment portfolio, would account for 39-40 per cent of the income."

http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v8...php?id=1329809

[Naka]

Any dividend above 6% is great

[IanQ]

My 2 sen’s worth.

There are some parameters we already know. Others of course we can make an educated guess.

What we know is that asset under management by EPF is around 712 bio at end Sept 2016. We also know around 25% is invested overseas and guess what happened to our MYR? MYR went from 4.1385 to 4.4862, a 8.4% move. All things equal, 25% of one’s asset oversea with 8.4% FX gain should net us a gain of 2.1% in overall value.
There is also the fact that around 41% of AUM is in equities. We all know of the Trump effect in Dec which rallied all equities in general.
If I were to make a guess, it should be above 6.4%. Some earlier calculations I made pointed to possibility of even above 7% if the overseas investment came in strongly.

Of course, EPF has the right to reserve some of the gains, whether realized or not, for future purposes. We also do not know what EPF actually invested except in a very broad basis.

Nonetheless, all this is just qualitative analysis for fun on a Friday after lunch time where I am too lazy to go out for lunch under the hot sun. I did work out the numbers but there is really no point looking into that. We shall know the result this weekend latest as EPF website states that kiosk is down this weekend, starting 4pm. A big enough hint rite?

:: This year also is a potential Election year for Malaysia. Would the government give a bad dividend if they can give all out? Why reserve too much for future government to take credit?

[opulant]

... What we know is that asset under management by EPF is around 712 bio at end Sept 2016. We also know around 25% is invested overseas and guess what happened to our MYR? MYR went from 4.1385 to 4.4862, a 8.4% move. All things equal, 25% of one’s asset oversea with 8.4% FX gain should net us a gain of 2.1% in overall value. ...

I'm positive the overall net gain from forex will be higher than 2.1% as the percentage of income contribution from EPF overseas investment is bigger than 25%..

[tupai]

min 6.5% ..No rocket science to keep the Cina Pendatang happy...

BTW, a private retail 'short term' 7yr bond for a 'loan provider' is offered yesterday at 6-6.5% dividend. Cap guaranteed too. Apa lagi Cina mahu?

p/s it would have been 6.65% if the EPF executive staff had been flying in & out of Malaise, using economy class MAS or AAsiaX instead of private jets.

[clfoo]

I'm positive the overall net gain from forex will be higher than 2.1% as the percentage of income contribution from EPF overseas investment is bigger than 25%..

that is you assume they sell everything in oversea and dispatch the money back, how likely is that?

[IanQ]

that is you assume they sell everything in oversea and dispatch the money back, how likely is that?

There is no need to take profit (ie sell their investments) oversea and remit the cash back. As long as they can do a “mark-to-market” and keep some reserve for any slippage, it counts as gain or loss. Since EPF invests mainly in liquid, exchange traded stuff, they can do mtm on most of their investments.

Btw, being EPF, one of their primary criteria for equity investment would also be equities that pay dividends. We can count on that to come in as well.

[opulant]

that is you assume they sell everything in oversea and dispatch the money back, how likely is that?

I'm talking about income contribution, not asset divestment. I think you have missed my point by miles....

[cskok8]

Did EPF "invest" in 1MDB?

[opulant]

I think is good to make life a little bit simple. ..

They can invest in 1MDB, 2MDB, 3MDB.. etc, etc or they can take a bombardier private jet from KL to Ipoh every week just to eat chicken rice there .... it's all ok for me as long as the dividend rate is good.

I don't think you can question your angmow bank or the chinaman banks from the small red dot where they invest your money or how they invest your money... the same applies for EPF and I'm sure same for CPF as well...

[IanQ]

Did EPF "invest" in 1MDB?

there were a press release by EPF before. Can look for it on kwsp website. It stated that it did not technically invested in 1MDB, but it did invest in some firms, which 1MDB purchased afterwards. Unfortunately nothing can be done due to that. Nonetheless, the amount is insignification vs EPF's size for us to worry

[tupai]

... Nonetheless, the amount is insignification vs EPF's size for us to worry

More pertinent is that epf is your 1govt sponsored $kim Ponzi . And with a firmed pyramid demographic, the contributions will continue to flow in...
Many here hitting 50 or 55yrs young should have no i$$ue$ in withdrawing if one chooses to do so. That said, It is those current contributors in the 30s & 20s...maybe even the early 40s who should be cold sweating beads...

BUT for now, anything with cap guaranteed above 6% returns is good. Very good indeed.

[cskok8]

As long as there are young suckers continuing to contribute, old suckers like us should be ok

[opulant]

More pertinent is that epf is your 1govt sponsored $kim Ponzi . And with a firmed pyramid demographic, the contributions will continue to flow in...
Many here hitting 50 or 55yrs young should have no i$$ue$ in withdrawing if one chooses to do so. That said, It is those current contributors in the 30s & 20s...maybe even the early 40s who should be cold sweating beads....

Ponzi scheme... Yes absolutely correct.

ALL public pension schemes in this planet are ponzi schemes. As a matter of fact, government pension/retirement fund is the mother of all private ponzi schemes.

It started from Europe and grew exponentially with the baby boomers era after the WW2. Like what you said, the key is the never-ending new contributors to support the older ones. Your Malaya gomen inherited this from the Brits and your present 1gomen is harvesting the fruits now as the demographic here are predominantly young people now..

The European governments are not so lucky. With very low birth rate and low employment rate, their younger contributors to the state pension fund are at the record low but the retired old folks who enjoy generous benefits are at the record high. So, their state ponzi scheme is going to fail and in fact, some of the person schemes had failed like in Greece.

Over here, life is good.. still very good.

[zinglicious]

MY Economy is veri veri good......GDP naik 4.5% http://www.thesundaily.my/news/2165354

So, this year dividend should be + 4.5% more....or less.....