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Thread: Will Singapore launch military attack on Malaysia?

  1. #1
    jeffooi Guest

    Will Singapore launch military attack on Malaysia?

    Will Singapore launch military attack on Malaysia?

    Saturday, January 4, 2003

    Bombs away!
    What if war broke out between Malaysia and Singapore
    Haris Hussain and Marhalim Abas

    IT’S 4am.

    The early morning calm is suddenly shattered by the deafening screams of low-flying jets.

    Seconds later, Kuantan air base is rocked by multiple explosions, followed by “secondaries” as Malaysia’s air assets in aircraft shelters and revetments are obliterated.

    Klaxons blaring, pilots are scrambled to whichever aircraft that are still air-worthy, but it’s useless. The runways had been cratered.

    In the ensuing confusion, reports start streaming in. It seems that this is not an isolated case.

    Butterworth checks in and reports that its entire complement of F/A-18D Hornets are now smoking, twisted hulks out on the tarmac.

    And the entire Third Division which has overall command over Johor and Malacca had also been annihilated.

    The National Power Grid had not been spared, plunging the entire country in darkness, adding to the chaos and confusion.

    Reports also indicated that the Ministry of Defence building in Jalan Padang Tembak, Kuala Lumpur, had been hit by at least six GBU-31 1,000-pound JDAMs (Joint Direct Attack Munitions).

    Even the KLCC had been struck with such ferocity that only the Maxis Tower was left standing.

    On Bukit Nanas, only a blackened stump is left of what used to be the Kuala Lumpur Tower.

    Down in Johor and Malacca, the situation is much worse. A torrent of armoured vehicles, including tanks, are hogging all the roads linking Johor Baru to Muar and Kota Tinggi, disgorging armed soldiers who took over all the towns.

    Senai airport, captured in a pre-dawn attack was being used by the helicopters and planes taking part in the on-going offensive.

    On the North-South Expressway, main battle tanks and armoured fighting vehicles together with towed artillery with fighter jets and attack helicopters providing close support were going north, destination unknown.

    Reports of troops landing from helicopters were coming in from all over Johor, from Mersing to Muar.

    By noon, Johoreans find themselves under Singapore military rule.

    If you think the scenario described above are wild imaginings of The Malay Mail writers, think again.

    The scenario, in less graphic form, was written by a British scholar, Tim Huxley, in his book Defending the Lion City: The Armed Forces of Singapore.

    It was published in 2000 as part of a series which examine the military capabilities of Asian countries by Australian publishing company Allen & Urwin.

    Huxley’s book, which is available at local bookstores, offers a fascinating look at a little-known but effective military organisation.

    Among others, it brought up issues that were almost never discussed - including sensitive questions of war plans with Singapore’s neighbours.

    Drawing on Israeli and other foreign experts and using only their country’s limited resources, the Singaporeans have moulded a technologically sophisticated and large military that is capable of striking far from the island State.

    Given the country’s absence of natural resources and lack of strategic depth, said Huxley, it’s a remarkable achievement.

    He said while the Singapore military has not yet been tested in real combat, few observers doubt its professional ability.

    In the second chapter of his book, Huxley points out that Malaysia was the most likely adversary to Singapore, with Indonesia second.

    He gave a detailed picture of how the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) capabilities were tailored to meet such adversaries.

    Huxley wrote: “While it is clear that the SAF is sufficiently flexible in terms of its organisation, equipment and doctrines to be useful in wide national security contingencies, its capabilities have been refined with specific contingencies in mind — above all, the possibility of war with or in Malaysia.”

    Singapore defence planners have also planned a war with or in Indonesia.

    Huxley said such plans have been played in SAF staff college exercises since the 1960s.

    He said that from the Singapore viewpoint, a war with Malaysia could be triggered due to communal conflict in Malaysia which resulted in the disruption of water supply from Johor.

    Singapore, according to Huxley, have not dropped plans for a pre-emptive strike.

    Huxley further states: “To make intervention possible, the SAF would need to disable the Malaysian Armed Forces (MAF) with a brutal and fearless pre-emptive offensive or at least retain such capability as to execute such an attack after absorbing an initial (Malaysian) onslaught.

    “Probably in conjunction with electronic attacks on the MAF’s communication and sensors (such as radars), the SAF would first attempt to establish air superiority by devastating the Malaysian air force - in the first few hours of any conflict - before mounting further air strikes against other military targets.

    “Singapore’s army would then seize the initiative on the ground with commandos - infiltrated by air and sea - and helimobile Guards unit securing the Malaysian side of the Causeway in Johor Baru and the Second Link bridge in Gelang Patah.

    “Combined armed forces, most importantly, armoured battle groups equipped with tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, would then cross into Johor and rapidly advance into the Peninsula.

    “They would be supported by Guards battalions and transport helicopters, strike aircraft and attack helicopters.”

    The Singaporean Navy will also play a vital role by landing troops on Johor’s coast while keeping the sea-lanes around the island from any blockage by the Malaysian navy.


  2. #2
    jeffooi Guest
    I bet Dr M must have read his book.

    Tim Huxley
    MA (Oxon), MSc Econ (Wales), PhD (ANU)

    Contact Details
    Rm 263, Wilberforce Building
    University of Hull, UK
    tel: 01482 466396

    Research Interests
    South-East Asian politics, international relations and contemporary political history with special reference to Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei and to civil-military relations. Security concepts and frameworks in relation to South-East Asia, and to East Asia more broadly. Defence policies and arms procurement in East Asia. He has undertaken research throughout South-East Asia.

    Major and Recent Publications


    'Defending the Lion City. The Armed Forces of Singapore', Allen & Unwin, Sydney (2000)

    'Arming East Asia', Adelphi Paper 329, (with S. Willett), Oxford University Press, Oxford (1999)

    'An Introduction to Southeast Asian Studies', (co-editor), Tauris, London (1996)

    Journal Articles and Papers
    'Insecurity in the ASEAN Region', Whitehall Paper 23 RUSI, London (1993)

    Current Research Project
    Regional security implications of Indonesia's economic, social and political disarray.

    Positions Held
    Director, Centre for South-East Asian Studies (1995-6, 2000-2)

    Saturday, January 4, 2003

    Author tips military balance Singapore’s way
    Haris Hussain and Marhalim Abas

    Since the 1980s, he wrote, the military balance moved decisively in the favour of Singapore, making an offensive strategy — the so-called pre-emptive strike — a realistic option for the island republic.

    By the 1990s, Singapore’s Armed Forces (SAF) quantative and qualitative strength over the Malaysia Armed Forces (MAF) became well-entrenched.

    In 2000, the potential mobilised strength of the SAF stood at 350,000 personnel.

    By comparison, the MAF totalled only about 145,000 personnel, although 105,000 of these were regulars.

    Singapore’s army formations, most importantly, the three combined arms divisions — each with integral armour and artillery, and a rapid deployment division — are coherent and highly offensively-oriented, in contrast to their Malaysian equivalents, which during the 1990s remained dispersed thinly throughout the peninsular and were only beginning to develop combined arms capabilities.

    Huxley said the SAF’s crucial strength lies in its armoured force and air force.

    The Singapore Army operates some 120 upgraded Centurion main battle tanks and some 350 AMX-13SMI light tanks. It’s air force has more combat aircraft than Malaysia and Indonesia combined.

    Together with tanker and airborne early warning aircraft, the Singaporean combat aircraft could wreck havoc in a conflict.

    Huxley stated that the SAF with it highly educated soldiers, high-techology equipment and synergistic relations among the three services yielded important military advantages over Malaysia or any other potential adversaries.

    He said the economic recession in Malaysia in 1986-1987 and 1997-1998 was an obstacle for its armed forces modernisation and re-equipment.

    He said the plans to build major bases in Johor, one each in Gemas and Mersing, would probably strengthen the defences in the south.

    Last edited by jeffooi; 04-01-2003 at 01:37 PM.

  3. #3
    jeffooi Guest
    For those interested in the book:

    Defending the Lion City: The Armed Forces of Singapore
    by Huxley, Tim

    Publisher: Allen & Urwin
    Format: Paperback, 335 pages
    Published: 2000, Australia, 1st Edition
    ISBN: 1865081183
    Price: US$19.14

  4. #4
    jeffooi Guest
    Saturday, 04 January 2003

    Malaysia won't be caught off-guard, says MSRC chief
    Haris Hussain and Marhalim Abas

    MALAYSIAN Strategic Research Centre executive director Abdul Razak Baginda, who was quoted by Tim Huxley in the book, described the scenerio presented by the author as one-sided.

    He said Huxley only took into account Singapore's strategy of pre-emptive action.

    "No war started out of the blue. What he is saying is that Malaysia will get caught with its pants down. We are not that naive," Abdul Razak said.


    * * *

    'Don't underestimate the might of our Armed Forces'

    DEPUTY Defence Minister Datuk Shafie Apdal, when asked to comment on the assertations by Tim Huxley, said one should not underestimate the capability and resolve of Malaysia and its people.

    He said Malaysia subscribed to the Asean policy of good conduct and neighbourly spirit.

    "When we buy arms, it is as a deterrent, we are not preparing to go to war with anyone," he said.

    Shafie said anyone who dares to breach the sovereignty of Malaysia will face the might of the Armed Forces and the people.


  5. #5
    kwchang Guest
    HehHehHeh...Imagine this...

    On the first day taking over JB, all the Singaporean foot soldiers would go AWOL shopping at half price (less tax and the monetory exchange rate), gorging themselves silly with the delicious Malaysian food (I've been told that it is so bland back in the island), raiding the stores of chewing gum, simply going gaa-gaa over the vast expanses of space (they are rather claustrophobic in their pigeon-hole flats back home) and opportunities to jay-walk, spit or just litter the streets.

    They'd also be too tired after crossing the causeway because we don't have the MRT or efficient public transport to coddle those pampered fellas.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jan 2003

    Will Singapore attack Malaysia?

    What do you think the SAF is for?
    When Singapore is threatened by Malaysia, SAF will surely overun KL in three days and Mahathir will not be able to talk big anymore.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    USJ 11
    3 days? 72 hours! 4320 minutes!!! THAT is a very long time in modern war

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    So how fast do you want SAF to overun KL you traitor!

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2001
    กรุงเทพ เมืองไทย ครับ / Subang Jaya / Bukit Bintang / Bangkok
    war with Singapore is simply unthinkable. we are so closely related and historically and culturally intertwined, we are like brothers and sisters. i shall not support a war drummed up by politicians for their very own popularity mileage.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jan 2003

    What all this provocation?

    I think our government has been trying very hard to provoke Singapore with all kinds of issues for political gain. This has brought nothing but instability to the region. Its pure foolishness.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Jun 2002
    u forgot to add that for m'sians it time will be time to stay away from genting / camerons / malacca / gunung ledang / gunung datuk rembau etc.
    best biz to go into then is selling food and camping equipment maybe condoms too, but not, definitely not, garbage bags.

    more seriously, i cannot imagine spore wanting to wage war with msia, not so much because of capability, but blood ties are too strong. i will not be surprised if the bulk of our neighbour's military personnel have some close living relatives domicile in their nearest neighbour. the warheads will turn on the looneys b4 being directed at us.

  12. #12
    jeffooi Guest
    In all humility, what would be the options for the governments of:

    Singapore vs. Malaysia
    1. You WIN vs. I LOSE
    2. You WIN vs. I WIN
    3. You LOSE vs. I WIN
    4. You LOSE vs. I LOSE

    Water or no water.
    Batu Puteh or no Batu Puteh.
    War or no War.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    USJ 11

    Aiyah.... No need to fight-lah.

    I have a proposal. If ever we get attacked by Singapoe, send in 3 million of our population to surrender in their teeny weeny little island. They will go haywire just trying to feed and shelter 3 million prisoners of war. Ha ha.

    But if they surrender their population to Malaysia, we take over the island and raise our Malaysian flag on Bukit Timah.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    I will find it very difficult to believe that Singapore and Malaysia will ever go to war. A number of Singaporeans have Malaysian spouses, and most Singaporeans have relatives in Malaysia. In addition to that, many Singaporean and Malaysian businessmen have business interests on both sides of the Causeway. And there are about 400 000 Malaysians working, studying and living in Singapore.

    Dr Mahathir studied in Singapore for his medical degree while Goh Chok Tong spent his early childhood at a kampong in Pahang. The ties between the two people are too closely-knitted.

    But having said that, nothing is inevitable. The Chinese fought a civil war in China, North and South Korea are against each other, and so was North and South Vietnam previously.

    The pre-emptive strike offensive strategy adopted by Singapore is not something new. It is an open secret. You may call it kiasu, but Singapore has to guard against every possibility. Without such a strategy, Singapore can be overrun within hours if the invading forces managed to step into Singapore.

    Before Newater, cutting off the water supply will make Singapore helpless and the only option was to surrender. Singapore has learnt a painful lesson when the Japanese cut off the water supply during WWII and the 'stronger' British forces were forced to surrender. Singapore then suffered Japanese occupation and brutality for 3 years and 9 months. The Singapore government will never allow the water supply to be cut off again.

    Another reason will be if UMNO loses power and another party, like PAS, took over the government. They may decide to 'take back' Singapore if they believe that Singapore was cheated from Malaysia by the East India Company in the 1820s.

    USA analysts have stated that Singapore has the best army, airforce and navy in SEA. And Singapore has come up tops in the areas of weaponry, logistics, intelligence, etc. The only question are the citizen-soldiers, who are definitely not as rugged as their SEA counterparts. Most Singaporeans actually complained about the 2.5 years of National Service (it is a long time taken off one's golden year at age of 18), followed by up to 40 days of reservist training a year. It is a long time compared to the Malaysian's proposal of 3-6 months of National Service in Malaysia.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Jan 2003


    At least we know that if PAS ever took over and try to be militant or fanatical, Singapore will throw them out for us.

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