Petrol Pump Price Hikes again...???

[orchipalar]

Err...dear Patrick:)...this is NOT from a reported source of any medias...

Ahem...a generous n handsome little pigeon flew pass over the roof of Orchi's home...n dropped a piece of note...which asks...wef midnight tonight 30/07/05...there could be an upward adjustment of all fuel pumps retail prices...???

Err...by the looks of such thingys happening quite frequently recently...Orchi would NOT be any bluddy surprised...IF the pump prices would again GO UP...after tonight...:(

Err...anyone else...got any wind of this....ahem...UP by how much ar??? :o

[headache]

I think that bird poo on my garden and I counted about 7-8 droplets.

[mlkok]

Enough to make up for the RM16 bil subsidy I guess :p

[orchipalar]

Err...bluddy Orchi must be getting old liao...the visions are deceiving....:(

Ahem...another note fell from the sky...n probably dropped by the same handsome little pigeon...

The note asks more specifically...10 cents per litre on Petrol...!!!???

20 cents per litre on DIESEL...!!!???... :mad:

[aroki]

Orchi,

tqs for the sms and updates. Petrol kiosk confirm the price. Just got myself a full tank!!! Thanks orchi sama. :)

[KelvC]

My issue is that has not been any announcement. Last time Pak Lah said don't start rumours, we will make timely announcement. Seems not. Now you wonder why there is always rumours.Cakap tak serupa bikin again.
Alas, sudah bikin already: Bernama time July 30, 2005 23:26 PM http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v3/news.php?id=147782

[mackzulkifli]

One you can choose not to eat. Or find another place which sells it cheaper. Last but not least, make your own. ;)

Msian fuel prices are still lower than international prices. The problem ppl are taking this prices increases as an apportunity to increase prices.

My issue is that has not been any announcement. Last time Pak Lah said don't start rumours, we will make timely announcement. Seems not. Now you wonder why there is always rumours.Cakap tak serupa bikin again.

That's the point. There is no precedence that leads us to believe that we will not get shocked into a price jump all of a sudden.

[orchipalar]

Alas, sudah bikin already: Bernama time July 30, 2005 23:26 PM http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v3/news.php?id=147782

Err...TQ KelvC:) for the update...

So...Orchi's handsome little pigeon...ahem...has done it again...TQ so much for keeping us well informed...:)

Err...come to think of it...ahem...how is Orchi going to convey a word of thanks to the handsome little pigeon...?? ;) :D

[ceo684]

AAArgh!! Missed it!! UP LIAO!! :D :p LOL

[pcyeoh]

Fuel Prices Up Again, 20 Sen Hike For Diesel, 10 Sen For Petrol

KUALA LUMPUR, July 30 (Bernama) -- The government Saturday announced increases in the retail price for diesel, petrol and LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) by 20 sen, 10 sen and five sen per litre effective Sunday.

With the latest increase, the retail price for premium petrol (RON97) in Peninsular Malaysia is now RM1.62 per litre, petrol (RON 92) RM1.58 per litre, diesel RM1.281 per litre and LPG RM1.45 per kilogram.

[lonewolf8]

Aargh...petrol price increase again! :eek: What can the rakyat do to counter the inevitable increase in prices of food and services? Ikat perut lagi?

Hopefully, in the coming budget, the government will be considerate to its rakyat by
1) increasing the personal reliefs
2) reduce road tax
3) reduce tax rate.
to cushion the impact of the increases in prices of food and services.

[Alexius Lim]

has anyone ever considered the idea of incorporating the road tax into the price of fuel/petrol... hence the more you drive, the more you pay... this would definately encourage car pooling, use of public transportation and other means. Not to mention the positive effect on the enviroment when lesser cars are on the road....

Fuel prices are eventually gonna go up as supplies decrease... wonder if the govt would consider tax rebates on hybrid cars being brought into Malaysia... oppps! another senario for AP?

[wsp]

Aiyooo!!! i missed it..... :(

i thought it was effective from 1 aug 2005, i thought with the unpegged of RM against USD, that would release our govt burden on oil hike as RM has become strengthen against USD... :confused:

[bugbear]

Looks like it is time to tighten your belt my fellow forumers. :o Be prudence in your spending and cut all wastages. Buy small cc car to save up on fuel unless you are one of the AP kings.

I just hope that the government will review their road tax for diesel cars. :(

[Choon1980]

Okay, I've just ran through some rough calculations here...

from KelvC's link, government subsidy for 2005 = about 14.48 billion.

from <a href="http://www.wildsingapore.com/news/20050506/050609-2.htm">here</a>, Malaysia's oil consumption for transportation = 190,000 barrels of oil a day (both diesel and regular gas).

so in one year, our transportation industry will use 190K x 365 = 69.35 million barrels of oil.

I'll round the current price of crude oil down to USD60.00, or 60 x 3.7 = RM222 per barrel.

Our subsidies for a barrel of oil is 14.48 bil / 69.35 mil = RM208 subsidised per barrel.

1 barrel of oil = 159 litres. I assume that all of that can be magically turned into gas/diesel without any loss of volume. Tried searching around the Net for the conversion of crude to gas, but didn't find anything...

So with the subsidies, we're paying RM14 for 159 litres of fuel. 159 litres / RM14 = 11.35 litres per ringgit.

Without subsidies, we pay the full RM222, so 159 litres / RM 222 = 0.716 litres per ringgit. (Conversely, RM 222 / 159 litres means that we pay RM1.39 for a litre of fuel.)

Obviously there's a few faults in my calculations of which

(a) I don't know how much is spent on the logistics for refining crude oil and distributing fuel. Logically, the more the government spends $$$ on these, the more we're forking out to pump our cars.

(b) I don't know how much diesel/regular gas would be obtained from refining 159 litres of crude.

(c) Inflation. Nothing can be done about this.

For (b) I'm taking a cue from KelvC's bernama link, I've averaged RON97, RON92 and diesel to get RM1.49 per litre. Peninsular Malaysia only.

Seeing as we're obviously on subsidies, RM11.35 x <something> = RM1.49, so <something> = 1.49 / 11.35 = 0.1313.

Now, cut out the subsidies, and we have 0.716 x 0.1313 = 0.094 litres per ringgit. This means RM10 per litre (averaged out among the different fuel types).

So going by the current ratio of fuel prices today...

RON97 without sub. = 1.62 / 4.481 x 10 = RM3.6 per litre.

RON92 without sub. = 1.58 / 4.481 x 10 = RM3.52 per litre.

Diesel without sub. = 1.281 / 4.481 x 10 = RM2.86 per litre.

Ouch, I think I'll have to go invest in that bicycle right now. And learn to grow my own food. Living sure is getting expensive!

[hmckl]

has no idea whether your calculation is correct or now .... all the numbers really make me blur blur
but let me congratulate anyway

[tupai]

for what it is worth, we still have about the cheapest petrol in SEA...I support the line, where the petrol cost can high but the road tax must be brought down...so, the more mileage you clock up the more you should pay. Cars like mine with low mileage will enjoy lower road tax :D

By Jove! my bike r/tax is already RM400/yr! :mad: :mad:
Now I have to campaign for lower r/tax for big bikes too! :p

yang amat bingung lato tupai :confused: :mad:

p/s I sokong that we criticize rationally. No cause to hurl crude insult in this petrol hike thingy. BUT I always feel free to insult and even consider knuckle-sandwich the idiotic-pea-brained drivers but thats another story that will most likely get me a banana split, topped with cherries. :D

[IanQ]

There is actually a small positive to petrol/diesel/gas price increase. Hopefully less cars will be on the road, which equates to lighter traffic-jams. Who knows, in the end, those who drive might save more in terms of fuel efficiency per milage, and time! Especially if the person believes that time is precious... :)

[CCY]

There is actually a small positive to petrol/diesel/gas price increase. Hopefully less cars will be on the road, which equates to lighter traffic-jams. Who knows, in the end, those who drive might save more in terms of fuel efficiency per milage, and time! Especially if the person believes that time is precious... :)

You may be right here that there will be less car on the road. But humans being humans will change their habit and forget about the increases real soon.

Just a thought that flashes accross my mind. Is it a conspiracy to increase the cake size for smaller cc cars so that our local producers demand would be higher to save it's skin and put a damper on those 3K...Kleenexxes Kias Koreans??

[orchipalar]

http://www.usj.com.my/bulletin/upload/showthread.php?t=8564

Err...our gomen is preaching...to minimize fuel wastages...ahem...but they are NOT telling the public why...or they may NOT have a clue...as to why the wastages occurred...

So which is it...??? :rolleyes:

Ahem...with them freaking congested roads n existing public transport so called SYSTEMS in place...how much would the freaking gomen...be expecting the rakyat to NOT waste burning those freaking fossil fuels....??? :confused:

All they know how n what to tell the public...n the rakyat jelata khursusnya...

...is to HIDE n LIE about many such thingys!!!.... :rolleyes:

[aroki]

Alas, sudah bikin already: Bernama time July 30, 2005 23:26 PM http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v3/news.php?id=147782
yeah, they should have waited till 11.59pm to tell us, why so early one. The last time we were told enough notice will be given. Don;t pass/believe in rumours and rush to the petrol station. Thank god our Orchi san has good and reliable info and I managed to get a full tank. Please note the pump attendant confirm the price increase at 7.56pm when I went to get fuel. So why can't the freaking govt make the announcement earlier?

so listen to rumours folks on fuel price increase. you have nothing to loose. After all you will end up with a full tank of fuel.

1st July (http://www.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2005/7/1/nation/11374714&sec=nation)

we will announce it!! Really? at 11.26pm (http://www.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2005/7/1/nation/11374714&sec=nation)

[Pak Kadok]

And believe everyone else, this will not be the last 10 sen increase for petrol...

[Lexus]

Of course nope. There will still be increase. School bus have been affected lately, and my son's fees rise from 45 to 55 lately.

[IanQ]

You may be right here that there will be less car on the road. But humans being humans will change their habit and forget about the increases real soon.

CCY, you are right. The roads are still as full as before, and I still cannot find an empty parking lot at 1 utama for half an hour. Guess the gas prices have not gone up enough!!! I now vote RM 3 ringgit per liter of petrol. Better to have the pain in one big shot/dose! :rolleyes:

[Pak Kadok]

I will continue to drive even if what the pessimists are speculating turn out to be true - that crude oil would eventually peak at US$100 per barrel and thus, petrol would be RM3 or more per litre.

[Choon1980]

At RM3 per litre, I won't be wondering if I can fuel my car, I'll be wondering if I can afford to buy the next meal.

[ivanhow]

..1 barrel of oil = 159 litres. I assume that all of that can be magically turned into gas/diesel without any loss of volume. Tried searching around the Net for the conversion of crude to gas, but didn't find anything...


Good start... but need someone with this petroleum refining knowledge to tell us what is the production ration of 1 barrel off crude to petroleum. Crude has many by-products. And there are also other ingredients that go into the production of petrol. One of which is clearly H2O. In a simple anology, crude is heavy thick stuff higher density that petrol, and refining it actually dilutes it with addtion of a solvent - but of course is more complicated. But the cost of refining is rather constant with the energy as the relevant rising cost.

That 1 barrel of crude can product 3 equivalent barrels of petrol, or 2 barrels of diesel (diesel being higher in density) - may be a reasonable assumption. But, let the expert on this field lend us the figure. Will return it after use. :D

[CCY]

Good start... but need someone with this petroleum refining knowledge to tell us what is the production ration of 1 barrel off crude to petroleum. Crude has many by-products. And there are also other ingredients that go into the production of petrol. One of which is clearly H2O. In a simple anology, crude is heavy thick stuff higher density that petrol, and refining it actually dilutes it with addtion of a solvent - but of course is more complicated. But the cost of refining is rather constant with the energy as the relevant rising cost.

That 1 barrel of crude can product 3 equivalent barrels of petrol, or 2 barrels of diesel (diesel being higher in density) - may be a reasonable assumption. But, let the expert on this field lend us the figure. Will return it after use. :D

Isn't fractionation about spliting the heavy crude into it's different densityand boiling point constituent? You have heavy bitumen at the bottom and petrol somewhere on top. Quite illogical to get 3 from 1 barrel, I think. Errr...1/3 barrel ...maybe. Someone care to clean the dust off my memory here?

[Choon1980]

Isn't fractionation about spliting the heavy crude into it's different densityand boiling point constituent? You have heavy bitumen at the bottom and petrol somewhere on top. Quite illogical to get 3 from 1 barrel, I think. Errr...1/3 barrel ...maybe. Someone care to clean the dust off my memory here?

Well, that's why we have different grades of crude oil (i.e. light sweet, heavy sour). Light sweet crude is easier and cheaper to refine, definitely, so I'd assume that it'll churn out more RON97 then lessay, heavy sour.

Whoops, thanks for the tip, Ivanhow. So actually 159 litres of crude should generate MORE fuel, not less...

[uchangeng]

Soon we might see more bicycles in Taipan if the petrol price keeps going up like this! If wife wants to come along, we might have to use "beca". I know my wife would.

Another option is, turn the entie Taipan main streets into a mall, car NOT allowed in. Good for retail business there. Coffee shops can put table outside the road. But, you know la.. Malaysians, we like to drive to door step of the shop and then make countless number of turns to find a parking spot as close to the shop as possible, in the process, cause horrible traffic jams!

[Alexius Lim]

There is actually a small positive to petrol/diesel/gas price increase. Hopefully less cars will be on the road, which equates to lighter traffic-jams. Who knows, in the end, those who drive might save more in terms of fuel efficiency per milage, and time! Especially if the person believes that time is precious... :)


IanQ... do you really believe the rich people aka businessmen are gonna care rats-ass about the increase. They would just increase their prices and double whammy the poor salarymenfolk. As far as the richfolks are concerned - it is a non issue ( aiya... another irritating 10 sen increase.... so what..! ) It is always the salaried-menfolk that kena (quietly sulk!)... luckily for us, we don't see riots whenever there is a price increase of fuel like in other countries

The other thing that caught my attention was an small little article in the newspaper... does anyone think that did we all get ripped off with the recent increase by the petrol station owners/operators or otherwise. As far as I know - petrol supplies deliveries (tankers) are on a cash purchase basis... ie. payment on delivery/shipment via bank account. Therefore - most of the stations would have had at least half old priced petrol in their storage tanks. Why then the unilateral increase at midnight by all the stations huh??? :rolleyes: Meaning if they had 50,000 liters in their tanks... every freaking station quietly made off with RM5,000 ringgit each !!! Now thats something to ponder....

[GreenBug]

... luckily for us, we don't see riots whenever there is a price increase of fuel like in other countries

The other thing that caught my attention was an small little article in the newspaper... huh??? :rolleyes:

every freaking station quietly made off with RM5,000 ringgit each !!! Now thats something to ponder....

Point 1 : Malaysians are more concerned with Jaga Tepi Kain Orang i.e. worrying more on who gets the APs and making hundreds of millions than the RM6 per tankful of petrol every few days..... so, there shall be no riot and the folks in the PM Office know that.

Point 2 : Newspapers love to print bad news... Fuel price hike is good news for the BN government. Do you think the raid and demolition of Ayah Pin Sky Kingdom was a "planned distraction" in any way?

Point 3 : You are wrong, they filled up the underground tanks to the brink. Thats RM12,000 to most urban kiosks and about RM7,000 to the suburban kiosks. Thats only petrol, what about diesel?

[Alexius Lim]

Point 3 : You are wrong, they filled up the underground tanks to the brink. Thats RM12,000 to most urban kiosks and about RM7,000 to the suburban kiosks. Thats only petrol, what about diesel?

So meaning we ALL got ripped off after all... issit?? :mad: by ALL the petrol stations too.... cos there would have definately been "some" balance from the earlier shipment of fuel....

[GreenBug]

So meaning we ALL got ripped off after all... issit?? :mad: by ALL the petrol stations too.... cos there would have definately been "some" balance from the earlier shipment of fuel....

What "some" balance of fuel in the underground tanks? Those tanks were topped up. I'm sure the kiosks owners/operators were all 'in-the-know' about the 00:00hr 1 August 2005 price hike.... Only we wage-earners and the ordinary rakyat do not know.... :mad:

[Alexius Lim]

Err...Ahem...a generous n handsome little pigeon flew pass over the roof of Orchi's home...n dropped a piece of note...which asks...wef midnight tonight 30/07/05...there could be an upward adjustment of all fuel pumps retail prices...???




On a lighter note.... this generous n handsome pigeon... eh, he got do fly-by near the EMPAT EKOR building ka... mebbe he want to pass us all next week punya 4D results... :D

[bobkee]

What I think is happening is a gradual weaning off the subsidy which is somewhat inevitable given the fact that we are jumping into the free trade arena. There will be a lot of grumbling and possibly some political repurcussions, but it is something that was going to happen anyway.

Howpa macam? I, for one, am glad that although it's gonna eat into our wallets, generally we Malaysians are still economically resilient enough to take these kind of challenges. It will hurt, but it won't be fatal. Compared to what happened in Indonesia a few years back when subsidies were reduced for fuel, we are somewhat blessed.

Then again .. bloody heck .. looks my RM1.00 is worth RM0.70 again :( :p

[IanQ]

IanQ... do you really believe the rich people aka businessmen are gonna care rats-ass about the increase. They would just increase their prices and double whammy the poor salarymenfolk. As far as the richfolks are concerned - it is a non issue ( aiya... another irritating 10 sen increase.... so what..! ) It is always the salaried-menfolk that kena (quietly sulk!)... luckily for us, we don't see riots whenever there is a price increase of fuel like in other countries

Hi Alexius, I fully agree with your statement, but unfortunately, we (the people and country) cannot sustain the inefficiencies due to petroleum subsidies. It is better to have the full brunt of the price increase (or slowly, as long as it is moving in the correct direction of free/semi-free economy) than to breed more inefficiencies. Plus, in the long run, this will weed out any industry or habit which is unhealthy/exists due to the subsidy.

The other argument is that it is the rich who is reaping the most as they are the ones which are driving 3K cc engines, vs the poor who can only afford to move around in a motorcycle. Of course if it is possible, those cars with high cc engines should be taxed heavily!

Actually, since the AP issue is so hot, why not the government imposes a levy for APs of say RM 10K to 20K, and use the income to subsidize the road tax of cars less than say 1000 cc? or use the extra income (50K APs * RM 20K = 1 billion RM) to modify our existing power stations, which uses coal or petrol, to use NGV (I think I got the acronym right)? Better for country and environment! Or use the RM 1 billion to build a better public transportation system?????? If we have a system like the one in Manhattan or London, there is no reason to drive! (I know I did not when I lived there.)

[jand]

i say better to push the fuel price up to rm10/liter.

Start funnelling the money saved into high speed inter-state, inter-connected rail system like in Japan and each state to have its own intra-state/city mass transit system like Singapore/Hong Kong.

Start building nuclear power plants utilising closed circuit fuel systems (much more environmentally friendly than the older system that generates unused nuclear wastes and not to mention coal power plants that generates carbon wastes).
No lowest bidder or tenders to cronies/bumiputera-only-tender as we all know the end result. The resulting catastrophe will kill of us: no god(s), ethnicity or creed can help you.
How's that for 'mengeratkan perpaduan rakyat' eh? Nothing like a disaster to bring us all together ;)

It's time me move away from the clustered city development to a more decentralised approach. This way, the entire country gets a share of the economic growth. How's that for increasing bumiputera equity/hard-core poverty eradication?

The massive infrastructure and the resulting growth of service and maintenance to support this new transportation system will definitely benefit the people: umnoputras, bumiputeras, non-bumiputeras and all the ang-mohs who would love to live by the seaside and take a 1 hour hop through our high speed line to the city.

Start pushing towards fully electric powered cars for our roads only. Insist all national car marques to produce electric cars only but of course, the interim solution will be hybrid cars (no, not that Prius. I'm talking mechas dude! Think Robotech(tm)! :D )

Heck, I have a vision here man.. Anybody here going to vote for me in the next general elections? I'm sure I have more than our YABs :D

Ok... I think I better stop here else I get a 'jagung' for my insane post. Or is it? ;)

ps: fermented juice is good for j00!!1 :cool:

[Choon1980]

i say better to push the fuel price up to rm10/liter.

Start funnelling the money saved into high speed inter-state, inter-connected rail system like in Japan and each state to have its own intra-state/city mass transit system like Singapore/Hong Kong.

Start building nuclear power plants utilising closed circuit fuel systems (much more environmentally friendly than the older system that generates unused nuclear wastes and not to mention coal power plants that generates carbon wastes).
No lowest bidder or tenders to cronies/bumiputera-only-tender as we all know the end result. The resulting catastrophe will kill of us: no god(s), ethnicity or creed can help you.
How's that for 'mengeratkan perpaduan rakyat' eh? Nothing like a disaster to bring us all together ;)

It's time me move away from the clustered city development to a more decentralised approach. This way, the entire country gets a share of the economic growth. How's that for increasing bumiputera equity/hard-core poverty eradication?

The massive infrastructure and the resulting growth of service and maintenance to support this new transportation system will definitely benefit the people: umnoputras, bumiputeras, non-bumiputeras and all the ang-mohs who would love to live by the seaside and take a 1 hour hop through our high speed line to the city.

Start pushing towards fully electric powered cars for our roads only. Insist all national car marques to produce electric cars only but of course, the interim solution will be hybrid cars (no, not that Prius. I'm talking mechas dude! Think Robotech(tm)! :D )

Heck, I have a vision here man.. Anybody here going to vote for me in the next general elections? I'm sure I have more than our YABs :D

Ok... I think I better stop here else I get a 'jagung' for my insane post. Or is it? ;)

ps: fermented juice is good for j00!!1 :cool:

with rm10 a liter, our economy will tank faster than you can say "Semuanya OK!".

I like the idea of a real/mass transit system. Though at least in the case of Subang, we're screwed in that department. There's really no land to plunk LRT stations around here.

Are you talking about nuclear breeders? If so, read <a href="http://www.hynet.info/hydrogen_e/energy/main_11.html">this</a>, if not, read it anyway :), there's some good info on nuke plant technology. My 2 cents: Nobody wants a nuclear power plant in their backyard. The government will have to fight opposition from a darn lot of people, ranging from environmentalists to the average joe public. Plus, uranium itself is a finite fossil fuel. I'd bet on solar + wind + hydroelectric power, though those also suffer from NIMBY (not in my backyard) effects.

I agree with the decentralised approach, but am thinking more towards communities that are self-sustaining as possible. Imagine if almost everyone lived, worked and played near where they live instead of commuting back and forth from Subang to KL and back. You'd have no traffic problems anymore.

Electric cars: Some of you might have been <a href = "http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Research.html">here</a> before, but for those who haven't, see what it takes to make the average car, electric, hybrid or not. Besides, exactly where are we going to find enough energy to outfit everyone with electric cars?

I have no idea about whether fermented juice is good for us, but I'll trust you on that one.

[Joe Gomez]

The saving to the gormen in terms of subsidies reduction ( this price hike is the result of partial reduction of subsidies ) is, according to the radio, around RM 1 billion.
Not an amount to be sneezed at for sure.

How will this amount be used is a billion ringgit soalan ............

We are going to put an additional billion in the hands of incompetents who took decades NOT TO ACCOMPLISH THE TARGETS OF THE NEP.
These BN morons took decades to cheat the poor Malay on the street and make millionaires and billionaires of selected blue blooded Malays.
The Malay masses in the kampungs have been taken for a ride.
So have the non-Bumis.

Now these incompetents have another billion to pilfer & gamble away in some grandiose schemes.
Trust Pak Lah you say .............. He will not let that happen you say.
Pak Lah did not admonish / punish / reveal names of those who have been responsible for the NEP debacle.
Has he ??
Pak Lah is merely reacting to vocifierous comments from the kris wielding bloke ... you know the one with the permanent grimace.

Pak Lah himself was the DPM when the NEP was slowly grinding to a dismal failure.
Pak Lah himself was the DPM when Rafidah was up to her mischief.

Now we give Pak Lah a billion mackeroos to manage ......... We Malaysians are very clever people ....
We are so clever that we vote Barisan in again and again ....... even when it hurts. Masochism ???

[kwchang]

Can some economist verify this...?
A billion saved does not mean a billion available for another project.
The Govt don't have a billion ringgit hanging on branches waiting to be plucked - they borrow it. So a billion saved means one billion less to borrow.

[USJ 17 Rep]

Who else do we elect? Malaysian's desperately want a more credible opposition party but unfortunately the only opposition that can create a chink in the BN armour is PAS. IMHO DAP and Keadilan should join forces to create a bigger,more organised and stremlined opposition, then only will the government practice transparency and are accountable for their actions. Currently the government is answerable to nobody because they know the 'rakyat' don't have any choice but to vote BN year in year out.

[jand]

Choon1980,

the RM10/litre should apply only to transport fuel used by the rakyat therefore, the citizens are effectively paying the carbon tax for vehicles used by the transport and supporting service industry (goods transport, etc) while they transition themselves from the internal combustion engine. Fertilisers are not affected.

This way, we discourage the people's reliance on fossil fuels and insulate ourselves from the ever increasing and inevitable fuel prices.

Of course, this is not possible today as it's more an ideal rather than reality. But that is what visions are, something we look forward to and strive for.

An idealist I am, but I find it easier to swallow and the present life less harsh when I can envision the good life ahead that makes our present day toils and suffering worthwhile. Why do parents try so hard for their children if not to realise the potential end product in them?

What the government is doing now by weaning us off the subsidies is a good start for our country but a leadership that does not have a clear goal nor communicates it well is not going nowhere. A good lesson is from the post WWII Japan. A collective goal unites the people to strive for more while a single person, remains a single person.

We spend more time fighting amongst ourselves than bettering ourselves collectively. What put homo sapiens at the top of the food chain today are brains and cooperation. It goes hand in hand.

Bersatu teguh, bercerai roboh. Rings true, all the time.

[Choon1980]

Choon1980,

the RM10/litre should apply only to transport fuel used by the rakyat therefore, the citizens are effectively paying the carbon tax for vehicles used by the transport and supporting service industry (goods transport, etc) while they transition themselves from the internal combustion engine. Fertilisers are not affected.

This way, we discourage the people's reliance on fossil fuels and insulate ourselves from the ever increasing and inevitable fuel prices.

Our country's economy will still go into decline. Saving our country's infrastructure is a moot point when we won't have enough cash to fuel our cars, or even buy necessities. A country's wealth is generated by its citizens ability to work and contribute to a nation's productivity. Now what's gonna happen when the rakyat can't drive to work because of RM10/litre? So yeah, we won't be relying on fossil fuels at that time, just that it won't be pretty and we won't like it.

We can never fully insulate ourselves from rising fuel prices unless:
(1)We grow our own food.
(2)We make our own fuel or switch to bicycles.
(3)We can make our own clothes, toys, cars, beer, cigarettes. Basically, anything that's being sold by anyone. :(

I'd say that dropping the fuel subsidies would show a more accurate trend in our country's development, which would be taken down a notch. But fuel subsidies is really only part of the problem. The price of crude oil is something to be more worried about. It wouldn't matter how much the government "saves" if oil is USD100+ a barrel, with or without subsidies.

[jand]

all very valid points.

Which is why the need to push towards electric powered transportation for the masses. That way, our dependance on fossil fuels for transportation is decreased at the same time, fossil fuel stress reduced as well.

As you've correctly said, nuclear breeders: with massive amount of electric power generation, our total dependance on fossil fuel is reduced mostly to agriculture, medicine, plastics and mostly downstream products that uses less fossil fuel in comparison to transportation fuel. Electric generation through wind, solar or garbage incineration is mostly a local community based electric generation, not something for the national grid but definitely plays a part in the overall energy plan.

When demand for a commodity decreases, the price either drops or it becomes a rare commodity like gold where the price can go sky high but will have limited impact on our daily lives.

[CCY]

Can someone confirm that palm diesel is currently being used by some industries. Heard about it sometime ago. Can't remember from whom. Will it come into play when diesel price hit the ceiling then. A renewable energy source for all...

[Choon1980]

From the nuclear reactor link I provided earlier...

At the present consumption rate natural uranium will last for just under 100 years. If power stations with today's technology were built then the uranium stocks would be used up in a very short period of time.

The only way out would be the nuclear breeder technology, its fuels are reprocessable to nearly hundred percent. World-wide the breeder technology is not pursued any more. Nuclear breeders have the disadvantage of needing highly toxic plutonium and producing radioactive waste with long half-life which we have to keep safe for thousends of years.

And the problem is, that's 100 years for the whole world. Does Malaysia have any uranium deposits? Are we going to be setting ourselves up for dependence on foreign uranium? (I'm not asking these questions out of spite. I really don't know if our country has any. Think I should google this anyway. heh.)

I'm still not sure about electric cars as being the future. It would play a part along with biofuels to reduce fossil fuel consumption, but both of them can't totally replace oil as a source for fuel.

The problem with massive amounts of electric power generation is that it also requires massive amount of fossil fuels. Right now, about 89.5% of Malaysia's electricity relies on fossil fuels, which are finite. (the rest is hydro-powered). <a href = "http://www.nationmaster.com/country/my/Energy">source</a> Assuming we can go nuclear and don't get "liberated" by a coalition-of-the-willing, how much extra juice can we get? (Again, this is curiosity. I'll try searching and running through some numbers later...) Biofuels are not without it's own problems, though....grrr...

I think the future would be in community based electric generation. Least we won't get slapped left, right and center with tariffs, which is what I think will be happening very soon if crude oil prices keep going up. Though I hate having cold showers on a windless night, brr.



When demand for a commodity decreases, the price either drops or it becomes a rare commodity like gold where the price can go sky high but will have limited impact on our daily lives.

This is true. Supply is what makes or breaks the price of a commodity. But the problem about crude oil is that it's not just a commodity that can be made by request. It takes millions of years to form crude oil deep in the bowels of Mother Earth, and we're obviously using them up faster than they're being made. Global oil production is peaking and the amount of spare oil production is only about 1 million barrels a day today, 10 years ago, that was 5 million barrels a day. What about 10 years from now? And you already know that crude oil doesn't just give us fuel, it gives us 99% of what we use and live with today.

How limited is limited? I admit I'm pretty much spoilt on the luxuries that oil has given us. I'm not sure if I can commute to work on a bike unless it's really close, though I should really look into buying a bike first! If you're able to adapt to the rising cost of erm....everything better than I am, then yeah, it'll only have a limited impact on us...

EDIT: I think I'll do some research later tonight and see if I can churn out some numbers on electricity generation (conventional + non-conventional) on a whole as well as what's needed for full conversion to electric cars. I can post up the details if you like, jand.

[jand]

excellent points there.

using nuclear reactors is pretty much replacing one fuel type with another, we're merely just delaying the inevitable. However, when it comes to efficiency, we definitely use less nuclear fuel to generate X amount of electricity compared to fossil fuels.

regarding limited amount of uranium deposits in the world, well, I must assume that since high grade uranium is not actively sought after as compared to oil, it's very likely we just haven't found or haven't the technology for a big discovery. All this is pretty much economics, doubtful any major company would invest in new uranium exploration with such a limited market at present.
http://serc.carleton.edu/research_education/nativelands/uraniumdeposits.html
http://www.cameco.com/uranium_101/uranium_science/uranium/index.php

looks like Malaysia is unlikely to have any uranium deposit of any worth if it's mostly limited to barren lands.

IF this works, the future gets even more exciting.
France to Host ITER International Nuclear Fusion Project (http://petrochemical.ihs.com/news-05Q3/international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor.jsp)

[VeeJay]

Alternative fuel for vehicle other than gasoline (petrol), had been founf long ago. Its just due to red-tapes, those projects have no strong bearing for further R&D.

The recent one that I saw was couple of years ago at Detroit Motor Convention (2002), where Chrysler showcased their water based fuel system.

AT the bottom of the car, the water circulates (like a whirlpool)to generate power. Thus making less mechanical item in the car. The top case of the car could be replaced as how one changes clothes. Everyday you could have a different look of a car...aint that neat?! I loved it immediately when I saw it.

Back then (2002) the car was still under R&D, and not sure what is the status of the product?! ANyone has any updates?..

Further more over the years there was so many alternatives…like corn, palm oil, many other type of oil from varies crops…

[GreenBug]

Can some economist verify this...?
A billion saved does not mean a billion available for another project.
The Govt don't have a billion ringgit hanging on branches waiting to be plucked - they borrow it. So a billion saved means one billion less to borrow.

Nah..... they will still borrow the 1 billion, not for oil subsidy, BUT to build bungalows for state exco members and increase ADUN slaries by 10% and throw in another RM50,000 per ADUN per year to attend weddings and give gifts! :mad:

[Choon1980]

Great links, jand! Yeah, I heard about ITER, the official website is <a href="http://www.iter.org">here</a>. Definitely interesting, but my excitement over it has kinda died down.

Our progress with nuclear fusion has been very slow. Scientists have been saying that fusion is 50 years from now, they said it back in the 50's, and they're still saying it!

The problem with ITER is that it's not a commercial venture, it's a research experiment to see whether a previous smaller experiment would be more successful. In the previous one, they managed to sustain fusion only for a few seconds, and it generated less energy than it took to maintain the fusion process!

ITER will be finished in 2016 and even if it succeeds, will need more time to be implemented for commercial use. In 2016, we'll most likely be on the downslope of the oil and natural gas production curve. They just better find a way to shrink the fusion process to the size of cheap ipods if it's to be implemented quickly!

By the way, nuclear energy isn't as efficient as a lot of people think, go <a href="http://www.eroei.com/eval/net_energy_list.html"> here</a>, though it doesn't say anything about nuclear breeders...

EDIT: VeeJay, google searches turned up empty. All the water-powered cars I found actually go through electrolysis to use the hydrogen generated as a power source, which doesn't sound like what you described...

[kwchang]

Great link on ITER
But I have always wondered .. since the sun is a fusion furnace, can you imagine if someone fouled up, resulting in uncontrolled fusion? End of the world !
Just laymen talking thru my nose but isn't that a possibility?
BTW, the fusion is so hot, nothing on earth could possibly hold the reaction. Generating magnetic crucibles would itself use a lot of electricity - zero sum in the end?

[jand]

regarding the magnetic containment field, yeah, the start up energy requirement is definitely high but the subsequent energy generation is more than enough to sustain and produce excess which we can all use. This is speaking through my arse though :p

regarding the explosive power of nuclear fusion, well, my philosophy has always been better dead than being half-dead/half-life. So, with a sun-like explosive power, we'll all be death-starred and no one would even know it ;)

edit: questions regarding ITER is found in the ITER webpage. Includes how it works and safety concerns. Links are not very visible, some navigation is required.
http://www.iter.org/safety_process.htm

[Choon1980]

Duh, why didn't think about this before? <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_power">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_power</a> (read the Safety and Environmental Issues section...)

So nope, we won't go out in a blaze of glory. But until ITER proves itself successful, I'll lump it with the same opinion I keep with Hydrogen and Zero Point Energy: won't save us.

[VeeJay]

EDIT: VeeJay, google searches turned up empty. All the water-powered cars I found actually go through electrolysis to use the hydrogen generated as a power source, which doesn't sound like what you described...

Hmm not sure.... I have lived in Michigan for 8 years, and during my stay there, I have seen many auto shows...I'm merely recalling from what I saw personally. Not sure if it was published in the web. The model that I mentioned, if I recall right, should be in the year 2002, if not 2001. But I think it was 2002.

When I get some time, will try to search the web...

[Pak Kadok]

Crude oil closed above US$62 a barrel in New York last night.

If it touches US$65 & stays there, you folks have to brace for another 10 sen or so increase for every litre of petrol.

Like this, it will soon touch the RM2 per litre mark.

With all the hedge funds (and other speculators) going long on crude oil, it's not impossible that it will touch US$100 per barrel in the very near future.

[VeeJay]

This is close to what I was talkin about...
http://www.spiritofmaat.com/archive/watercar/h20car2.htm

[Choon1980]

Thanks for the link, VeeJay. It's still hydrogen generated from electrolysis of water though. Read through the article for any sign of a whirlpool, but didn't find any. :rolleyes:

[pokemon]

The hike is reallocation of the subsidy to other sectors, like fishery :D

[VeeJay]

Dear Choon...most of the technological testing currently revolves around hydrogen ( produced from water, seawater, etc) and and its energy stored on a cell. The technology that I saw was pretty much the same too, but it had a very thin chasis about 1 foot depth only (if I'm not mistaken).

[expat1609]

i allways hear about subsidy, and that the government want's to stop it in steps ???
does anyone know how much the subsidy really is, means what would the liter petrol cost right now with no subsidy ???

top end at the moment, coz even with no subsidy the price will still climb, as everywhere else in this world.

[Choon1980]

expat1609: To answer your question, I did a few primitive calculations a few pages back in this thread. Hope it helps..

You're right, in the end, it doesn't matter how much the subsidies are. How much crude oil costs matters.

[Choon1980]

Dear Choon...most of the technological testing currently revolves around hydrogen ( produced from water, seawater, etc) and and its energy stored on a cell. The technology that I saw was pretty much the same too, but it had a very thin chasis about 1 foot depth only (if I'm not mistaken).

Yes, I've read a lot about hydrogen technology. Just that from your first description it sounded as if the car was RUN by water, not using it to obtain hydrogen, which is what it really needs.

[Choon1980]

Actually, after reading that link, I noticed something disturbing.

Qoute:

It is also noteworthy that, according to the man we spoke with, seawater could be used directly as the primary fuel, thus eliminating the need for added salt.

and

In order to speed up the process for demonstration purposes, a salt other than sodium chloride was used, but in practice normal table-salt added to water, or sea water, would probably be the cheapest alternatives. In any case, the type of electrolyte used is not important to the overall "proof of concept" that water can be broken down to run a combustion engine.

I guess those guys were lucky (or smart) not to use saltwater. The electrolysis of saltwater also generates chlorine gas. Not healthy for the human body, last I heard.

[aroki]

i allways hear about subsidy, and that the government want's to stop it in steps ???
does anyone know how much the subsidy really is, means what would the liter petrol cost right now with no subsidy ???

RM2.42/liter without subsidy for petrol. Diesel...maybe rm0.10-0.20 cheaper.

[ivanhow]

RM2.42/liter without subsidy for petrol. Diesel...maybe rm0.10-0.20 cheaper.

Gazz that's d price of petrol in the States? Dere no subsidy rite? no? :D

[ivanhow]

Our sun is the major source of our energy.
There is still one untapped source of energy from the earth, in vast amounts... under the earth - at the core of the earth - molten earth, with immense high thermal energy - literally untapped. :D When the volcano spills the lava out of the earth - imagine the amount of heat, and thermal energy liberated... The same energy that moves the earth's crust, and cause earthquakes of untold damages... Perhaps that energy could be harnessed for peaceful use, someday? :D

[Choon1980]

Gas in the US is not subsidised, but prices are not regulated like in Malaysia. Some gas stations have USD $2.90 a gallon in the morning, then drop down to USD $2.80 a gallon later on in the evening...

[tupai]

Gas in the US is not subsidised, but prices are not regulated like in Malaysia. Some gas stations have USD $2.90 a gallon in the morning, then drop down to USD $2.80 a gallon later on in the evening...

ditto in Oz & UK. Petrol is more expensive on friday-sunday.

Petrol here will be RM2.00 by Nov 05 and Rm2.20 by Dec 05.

Yang akan bermoto lama lama lato tupai.

[VeeJay]

Gas in the US is not subsidised, but prices are not regulated like in Malaysia. Some gas stations have USD $2.90 a gallon in the morning, then drop down to USD $2.80 a gallon later on in the evening...

US average right now stands at USD2.37/gallon. Thats about RM2.32/litre...hmmm not too far from Msia. It used to be real cheap during my time there, in early ()s we could still get for USD0.80/gallon!

[Choon1980]

Mmm, yeap. I don't think that my 2.80/2.90 example was really indicative of the actual average, though that's the highest price I've seen reported so far...

[SunwayKid]

If the govt stop all subsidies on fuel, does anyone care to guess where the funds will go to? Lower road tax ? Cheaper cars? At the end of the day, the rakyat in this bolehland will suffer as my guess is that we will end up paying more for fuel with absolutely nothing from the subsidy saved, except may be to the privileged few. :rolleyes:

[Choon1980]

I'm guessing that all the subsidies saved goes towards the pay raises of state assemblymen. Remember they also have to pay "ang pau" to couples getting married now!

[Zimon]

Malaysian will probably face another oil price increase before end of this year.
World oil prices just hit another new high today.... too many unexpected outages will drive the oil prices higher. Remember demand and consumption will rise in Nov and Dec when America faces the winter then.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4133702.stm

[xweird]

If the govt stop all subsidies on fuel, does anyone care to guess where the funds will go to? Lower road tax ? Cheaper cars? At the end of the day, the rakyat in this bolehland will suffer as my guess is that we will end up paying more for fuel with absolutely nothing from the subsidy saved, except may be to the privileged few. :rolleyes:

Malaysia is currently in debt. Reducing fuel subsidy means reducing debt, not extra cash to play around with.

[SunwayKid]

Malaysia is currently in debt. Reducing fuel subsidy means reducing debt, not extra cash to play around with.
Sorry yah - I am not an Economist, only study little bit in Form 6. When you say in debt, are you referring to budget deficit where our spending is greater than the income or is our Finance Minister looking at the country bank statement and find need to use OD or borrow money.

If we are in debt, obviously, somebody forgot to tell the Selangor CF and the assemblyman for the raise and increases they just give themselves. Neither did anyone inform that govt can get a lot of income from the AP business. Or why we need to use taxpayer's money to bail out failed businessman, or nearer to home, why we build concrete structures that are abandoned etc etc.....

By paying more for fuel, and the ripple effects on other items, surely it is the layman who is going to suffer.

[VeeJay]

Here is some of the links that I manage to dig from the net...and sorry, the car maker is GM and not Chrysler as I mentioned, and also it does show any of the whirlpool effect that I mentioned earlier....its been such a long time (2002 detroit auto show)...just cant recollect exactly....sorry about that...anyhow do enjoy knowing this cool car...Its called Autonomy

http://www.canadiandriver.com/news/020108na-3.htm
http://www.canadiandriver.com/news/02images/autonomy_graphic.jpg
www.yeworld.net/index/Culture/SZ/Auto/AS/142_2002520/142%2031%20200252093826.asp

[Choon1980]

Whoa, looks cool. I'd say that this car would have a brighter future if can be based on biofuels rather than hydrogen fuel-cells, though...

[VeeJay]

Palm biofuel to replace diesel

BY TEOH TEIK HOONG

PETALING JAYA: The sale and use of biofuel – a mixture of 5% processed palm oil and 95% diesel – will be made mandatory in 2008.
http://thestar.com.my/archives/2005/10/6/nation/n_10biodiesel.gif
It will be implemented after the Biofuel Bill is tabled and passed by Parliament next year.

“Once the Bill is passed, industries, motorists and petrol stations will be given a year to voluntarily switch to biofuel.

“We want the public to test the fuel and give us feedback,” Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Datuk Peter Chin Fah Kui told The Star.

He said once the trial period was over, the Government would make it mandatory for diesel to be replaced with biofuel.

“There will no longer be unadulterated diesel on sale. We will enforce it and make everyone comply,” he added.

Records from the Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs Ministry showed that last year, industry demand for diesel was 2.8 billion litres while diesel sold at subsidised prices for other uses totalled 5.56 billion litres.

Having a 5% mix would mean cutting down the reliance on diesel for industrial use by 140,000 litres and for other uses by 278,000 litres annually.

The use of biofuel will also help cut down carbon monoxide emissions from vehicles and machines, as the combustion of biofuel produces carbon dioxide.

Chin said the Government’s target was to export 180,000 tonnes of biofuel by 2007.

“We have the capacity to produce enough for domestic use,” he said.

Former Malaysian Palm Oil Association chief executive M.R. Chandran said it was important the Government ensure that petroleum companies complied with the National Biofuel Policy and Biofuel Act.

“We need strong political will to compel petrol kiosks to make biofuel available,” he said.

He said it was important for biofuel producers and petroleum companies to work together to make biofuel available to the public at petrol stations.

Chandran said Malaysia could convert 500,000 tonnes of its total production of 15 million tonnes of crude palm oil into biofuel.

“The 5% mix of processed palm oil with diesel will not affect the performance of vehicles,” he added.

On concerns that the push to use biofuel meant clearing more land for planting oil palm, Chandran said any expansion in the future would be done in a sustainable manner.

“The country is the top producer of palm oil in the world with almost four million hectares in plantations.

“Our maximum capacity is to plant another 600,000ha and produce a maximum of 20 million tonnes of palm oil annually,” he said.

[USJ27Resident]

Whoa, looks cool. I'd say that this car would have a brighter future if can be based on biofuels rather than hydrogen fuel-cells, though...

Hehe... goody...goody... at this rate, after frying the fish or french fries, we can use the fish oil to keep the engine lubricated... :p

[Choon1980]

Actually, you can! Though you'd have to use the (vegetable) oil used for frying, not from the fish. At least, not yet.

[norsi]

just wondering if anyone knows where to obtain (on-line) the historical data of oil price increase in malaysia. Appreciate your help!

[jand]

Duh, why didn't think about this before? <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_power">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_power</a> (read the Safety and Environmental Issues section...)

So nope, we won't go out in a blaze of glory. But until ITER proves itself successful, I'll lump it with the same opinion I keep with Hydrogen and Zero Point Energy: won't save us.

ITER just got approved recently. Projected to start construction in 2007 and 8 years to complete. If all goes well, 2040 will be the year to watch. ;)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/5012638.stm

[Choon1980]

By 2040, Malaysia's oil production will be in terminal decline, and world oil production will either be at peak or more likely, also in decline. Way too late to save us.