PDA

View Full Version : when your finance minister tell you there is no recession ...



clfoo
16-12-2008, 02:00 AM
time will tell whether he is right (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOj_U6lnLyI) or he is half past six or is he eating his sock now? ... some may deem this as politic but i think it's economic, at mean time let's keep the record and read what other views are so u'll not caught off guard. Afterall that's what a good neighbour r for :rolleyes:

http://futurefastforward.com/component/content/article/570

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/ohnam/Article/index_html

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/ohnam2-2/Article/

in short, choose to believe ppl with silver spoon in mouth or ppl on the field at your peril ..

rakyat
16-12-2008, 09:30 AM
Technical recession means 2 consecutive quarters of shrinking or negative GDP. Currently we are not yet experiencing recession.

But then M'sia do not have a strong domestic consumption to ride out a global slowdown and we r heavily reliant on exports. Hence we WILL feel the effect of slowdown if and when our trade partners propensity to consume M'sia made good starts to reduce. And who is our major trading partner? Good ole US of A

Take a good look at the Q4 figures as an indication

mlkok
16-12-2008, 10:48 AM
GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + (Exports - Imports)

Take a guess which parameter will be tweaked so that our GDP will still show it's healthy? :p

tupai
16-12-2008, 02:36 PM
updates: Malaysian companies (maybe > 6.5% unemployment)

Sony - shutdown 25 Dec till 6th Jan 09 in their Bangi plant
San Disk - announced layoff 450-500 employees
Flextronics - 4 days week for Month Nov and Dec.
AMD Penang - announced yesterday VSS layoff 500 employees.
Spansion - force to take leave (5 days in this quarter)
Jabil - planned shut down from Dec 24 to Jan 4, will be 6 days leave.
Agilent - planned shut down from Dec 24 to Jan 4, will be 6 days leave. Jan 09 might have another shutdown. No increment 2008 review.
Avago - no plan shutdown as no more in-house production, hiring freeze.
ASE - shut down every fortnightly on Monday starting from Nov 3.
Fairchild - planned forced 'Mass Vacation' for 9 days leave in Feb 08
INTEL - No increment 2008 review, VSS for those under perform and massive cut cost/travel 2009, no shutdown plan yet
Motorola, Penang - Still hiring + profit, suspect got government 'look after', Motorola Singapore Cellular phone plant closure.cut 800 job and now waiting for buyer.
Siltera, Kulim - Propose close down this Malaysian 1st wafer fab company, loss RM4 billion in 2008

Malaysian Government expect Singapore plant shutdown and job cuts affecting 300,000 Malaysian workers jobless...
-----unquote------------

SO, maybe the blur sotong like moi still think its hunky dory & blue skies simply bcos the gomen told me so...and also ah...got rm7billlion extras to pump into economy lah..so dont worry be happy.

Yang Banyak kerja koolie latotupai

clfoo
01-01-2009, 03:03 AM
what your finance minister doesn't know about economy may be killing you.

http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/content.jsp?id=com.tms.cms.article.Article_8b25817 8-cb73c03a-53897400-20c414c3

patrick
01-01-2009, 10:03 AM
updates: Malaysian companies (maybe > 6.5% unemployment)

Sony - shutdown 25 Dec till 6th Jan 09 in their Bangi plant............

....Malaysian Government expect Singapore plant shutdown and job cuts affecting 300,000 Malaysian workers jobless...
-----unquote------------

SO, maybe the blur sotong like moi still think its hunky dory & blue skies simply bcos the gomen told me so...and also ah...got rm7billlion extras to pump into economy lah..so dont worry be happy.

Yang Banyak kerja koolie latotupai

You left out the biggie...the closure of Western Digital in Sarawak...!!

compounding
01-01-2009, 12:13 PM
i think its a 50/50 chance lah...

however, surely there will be contraction in the economy..

recession, soon we might technically fall into it...or just barely able avoid it.. :o

kuma
02-01-2009, 12:39 AM
Here is Saxo Bank's Capital Market '10 Outrageous Predictions For 2009'

Read it and then see how we in Malaysia fit in. What kind of an effect will we be feeling? You figure it out. Anyone care to predict?

10 Outrageous Claims 2009

Link To Saxo Bank Site (http://www2.saxobank.com/en/market-news-and-analysis/Pages/economic-predictions-2009.aspx)

[ Note: Saxo Bank website traffic is heavy and page load can be slow. Here it is reproduced at Yahoo Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/106331/No-Growth-in-China-and-Other-Outrageous-Prophecies) - however note that there is a typo on item 10 which should be 'Chinese Yuan' ]

Sentinel
02-01-2009, 01:18 PM
Why argue the technicality of whether we are in recession or we are not in recession? It is all based on a simple economic defination i.e. "when an economy experiences a contracting or negative growth for two consecutive quarters..."

Hey, it doesn't matter if there is a recession or not technically speaking, there are going to be 300,000 people losing jobs in Singapore half of which are going to come back to Malaysia, already 1500 casualties in Western Digital plant shutdown in Kuching, estimated 50,000 in March 2009 in Bayan Lepas Penang area, do something concrete rather than going into the press everyday looking suave and smart and keep saying 'no recession'...

Why the heck want to argue if we have official recession or not? We are going to have about 200,000 people jobless and without income braders! That is a big problem. Some of our leaders, sadly, are still having their heads in clouds and in denial, maybe they can't see it coming.... they are expecting only the left jab, they don't see the undercut coming....

compounding
02-01-2009, 08:35 PM
this is what they called "economic cycle"....what to do?

even the great Americans & Japanese cant do anything...

Kissme
02-01-2009, 09:02 PM
Government say the economy is alright because they want to build confidence in the market. Its all about market sentiment. Regardless of whatever policies they choose to implement, they still need to boost investor confidence or else it won't do much.

clfoo
02-01-2009, 10:35 PM
Government say the economy is alright because they want to build confidence in the market. Its all about market sentiment. Regardless of whatever policies they choose to implement, they still need to boost investor confidence or else it won't do much.

ya they want to build confidence, but only by mouth no action, ppl are expose to outside news nowaday when they see the fact contrary to what the govt portray, that will make ppl more panic and lost trust in them, tell us what action they are going to take to cushion the impact that's more practical. Tell a spade as a spade, don't mislead the innocent and let them be prepare. At least on surface, Singapore have no problem telling the truth.


http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/content.jsp?id=com.tms.cms.article.Article_95ba41a 7-cb73c03a-53897400-84dc64c0

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong warned in his New Year message on Wednesday that the global financial crisis had hit the city-state of 4.8 million people hard, and that the economic outlook was uncertain.

"We must therefore prepare for a difficult year ahead, and especially the first half of 2009. Our economy will probably contract further," he said.

Sentinel
03-01-2009, 12:53 PM
this is what they called "economic cycle"....what to do?

even the great Americans & Japanese cant do anything...

Are you sure the Americans & Japanese can't do anything? What about the USD780 billion rescue package approved by the US Government? What about the dividend cheque to every qualified American citizen? What about the recent USD85 billion rescue package of some of the automakers? Don't you think these steps saved a lot of companies (especially insurance giant AIG / AIA?) and a lot of jobs?

What did our Nottingham U Economics Graduate do? First, he said there is no recession and there is nothing to be worried about. Then, he took RM5 billion from EPF and loaned it to Valuecap to keep the KLSE shares of "some companies" buoyant....

Sentinel
03-01-2009, 12:56 PM
Government say the economy is alright because they want to build confidence in the market. Its all about market sentiment. Regardless of whatever policies they choose to implement, they still need to boost investor confidence or else it won't do much.

Do you think investor confidence can be achieved through misrepresentations or twisted facts?

compounding
03-01-2009, 05:17 PM
Are you sure the Americans & Japanese can't do anything? What about the USD780 billion rescue package approved by the US Government? What about the dividend cheque to every qualified American citizen? What about the recent USD85 billion rescue package of some of the automakers? Don't you think these steps saved a lot of companies (especially insurance giant AIG / AIA?) and a lot of jobs?

What did our Nottingham U Economics Graduate do? First, he said there is no recession and there is nothing to be worried about. Then, he took RM5 billion from EPF and loaned it to Valuecap to keep the KLSE shares of "some companies" buoyant....
hai Sentinel... i meant even the Americans & Japanese cant do anything to stop the "economic cycles"... :)

Sentinel
03-01-2009, 09:35 PM
hai Sentinel... i meant even the Americans & Japanese cant do anything to stop the "economic cycles"... :)

BUT they did take the necessary actions to reduce the negative impact of the recession, didn't they? But what did our government do besides the RM5 billion loaned from EPF to Valuecap? Can you think of 1 thing the gomen of Bolehland did?

mlkok
03-01-2009, 10:28 PM
The Americans created this current mess.
Greenspan was busy avoiding every problem by creating larger and larger bubbles.
Paulson has not helped matters by his blundering policies.
Neither did "Helicopter" Bernake managed to do anything useful.
Our Bolehland is just good at copying from the masters. :p

bugbear
03-01-2009, 11:49 PM
Well, look what Raja Nazrin has got to say about this subject here.

http://mt.m2day.org/2008/content/view/16584/84/

Kissme
04-01-2009, 11:24 AM
Do you think investor confidence can be achieved through misrepresentations or twisted facts?

I wouldn't say that the country's leaders (e.g.bank negara, finance minister, bank ceos) is misrepresenting or twisting the facts. Rather I'd say that what they are doing is giving the most optimistic outlook of the economy based on whatever facts they have. They might also hide bad news from them public la. But at least by doing so they won't contribute to downside of the market right? Then there might happen be some less smart ppl who believe it or end up making investing decisions based on what they read in the newspapers.

I see the Finance minister of UK is doing something similar (telling everyone it will be alright) but then his statements are more balanced where there are bad news as well as good news.

To quote Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder's remark in 1994 "The last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth". Their job is to serve in the best interest of the country, but that means they could end up serving the rich people more than the poor.

Don't believe govt all the time cause they might not have your best interest in mind when they tell you things. Especially when you think the statement is bias then better rely on yourself.

Kissme
04-01-2009, 11:43 AM
Well, look what Raja Nazrin has got to say about this subject here.

http://mt.m2day.org/2008/content/view/16584/84/

His statement implies that you better start saving (preparing). I totally agree. If you are employed then its time to show your relevance to your employer if you don't want to get retrenched.
But then maybe the govt might be correct and we won't see a recession as in what's Singapore is facing?

bugbear
04-01-2009, 12:55 PM
His statement implies that you better start saving (preparing). I totally agree. If you are employed then its time to show your relevance to your employer if you don't want to get retrenched.
But then maybe the govt might be correct and we won't see a recession as in what's Singapore is facing?
That is possible. But at least the gomen must give a guarded prognosis of the economy situation instead of "all will be well" type of statement. At least Raja Nazrin is more pragmatic in his statement being a lawyer in up bringing while Najib as an economist doesn't seem to know anything at all. :confused:

Kissme
04-01-2009, 09:37 PM
That is possible. But at least the gomen must give a guarded prognosis of the economy situation instead of "all will be well" type of statement. At least Raja Nazrin is more pragmatic in his statement being a lawyer in up bringing while Najib as an economist doesn't seem to know anything at all. :confused:

Maybe its because the govt wants to see the ppl continue spending money so that the economy won't contract. At the end of the day the consumers and investors have make up their own mind whether to spend or not. Don't blame the govt if you make the wrong decisions because you were uninformed, careless or lazy to find out.
I agree with you that the leaders of this country are not being very honest about the economic situation. I feel their statements are an over-optimistic analysis.
If recession hits out it will be the poor below average folks who will suffer the most. Hopefully it won't happen.

msiablueskies
04-01-2009, 10:46 PM
updates: Malaysian companies (maybe > 6.5% unemployment)

Sony - shutdown 25 Dec till 6th Jan 09 in their Bangi plant
San Disk - announced layoff 450-500 employees
Flextronics - 4 days week for Month Nov and Dec.
AMD Penang - announced yesterday VSS layoff 500 employees.
Spansion - force to take leave (5 days in this quarter)
Jabil - planned shut down from Dec 24 to Jan 4, will be 6 days leave.
Agilent - planned shut down from Dec 24 to Jan 4, will be 6 days leave. Jan 09 might have another shutdown. No increment 2008 review.
Avago - no plan shutdown as no more in-house production, hiring freeze.
ASE - shut down every fortnightly on Monday starting from Nov 3.
Fairchild - planned forced 'Mass Vacation' for 9 days leave in Feb 08
INTEL - No increment 2008 review, VSS for those under perform and massive cut cost/travel 2009, no shutdown plan yet
Motorola, Penang - Still hiring + profit, suspect got government 'look after', Motorola Singapore Cellular phone plant closure.cut 800 job and now waiting for buyer.
Siltera, Kulim - Propose close down this Malaysian 1st wafer fab company, loss RM4 billion in 2008

Malaysian Government expect Singapore plant shutdown and job cuts affecting 300,000 Malaysian workers jobless...
-----unquote------------

SO, maybe the blur sotong like moi still think its hunky dory & blue skies simply bcos the gomen told me so...and also ah...got rm7billlion extras to pump into economy lah..so dont worry be happy.

Yang Banyak kerja koolie latotupai

Lato tupai,

How true is the above info that given by you...? pls advice by return ( PM )

thx

xt900
05-01-2009, 12:03 AM
If you are in semiconductor field, you will know that Tupai's statement are true. Most of semiconductor's business are based on JIT now, their supplier, their customer, all under JIT, means that order today and expecting delivery of F/G by next 2 days. Review of cost down and operation hours weekly, management people will discuss when to shut down again.

Sentinel
05-01-2009, 12:05 AM
Someone I hired 3 years ago as Key Accounts Manager in a Singapore MNC company I worked in just called me over the phone a while ago, he has been retrenched and planning on coming back to Malaysia to look for a job. Sad because this time I really can't help him anymore because I am out of the corporate sector and now smalltime cari makan. But this is really scary yah. A giant MNC in beverage retrenching? Jeez....

gtl
05-01-2009, 08:22 AM
how can the malaysian economy is not affected? went shopping at giant on friday evening, it was quite empty and the goods sold are quite expensive, i was shock some stuffs are cheaper in sgp (after conversion) especially imported stuffs.
while locally made goods are definately cheaper in malaysia, inflation is very high......susah to survive.

bslee
05-01-2009, 01:11 PM
Just last Saturday, I was at Subang Parade supermarket and was browsing around the cheese section. My jaw dropped when I saw the Kraft Cracker Barrel bar at RM27 something. The last I saw was RM15 to 17 if not mistaken. There were other items which prices have increased tremendously. Lazy to list.
What's going on? Aussie dollar increased by leaps and bounds?. Something very very wrong in this Bolehland. Neigh mind!.. I can do without those.
I vividly remember at one annual budget years ago, MOF telling that tax is increased for imported dairy products and you rakyat should eat more nasi lemak and mee goreng. What?.. you wanna damage my health ah?. I can't even trust the quality of mee nowadays.

tupai
05-01-2009, 03:06 PM
Lato tupai,

How true is the above info that given by you...? pls advice by return ( PM )

thx

True enuff...cannot reveal the source...else, Mighty Thor be forced to zapkill'ya! hmm...then again, that will be 1 less head to add to the coming 8.2% unemployment, capishe? :p :p

Yang Banyak tahu latotupai

tupai
05-01-2009, 04:16 PM
just off the phone: 600 workers laid off in a factory in Ulu Klang...next wave will come again sooner than later... :eek:

recession? what recession? :p
bizz contraction? wassa meanin ah? :p

semua Ok! :D

Yang Berita buruk bagi sama dia latotupai

jutamind
06-01-2009, 02:39 PM
which company in ulu klang is that? i read chippac is going to retrench something like 12% of their workforce globally and this company is located in ulu klang....so not sure whether this 600 is from the company mentioned.


just off the phone: 600 workers laid off in a factory in Ulu Klang...next wave will come again sooner than later... :eek:

recession? what recession? :p
bizz contraction? wassa meanin ah? :p

semua Ok! :D

Yang Berita buruk bagi sama dia latotupai

AllUrban
06-01-2009, 02:43 PM
True enuff...cannot reveal the source...else, Mighty Thor be forced to zapkill'ya! hmm...then again, that will be 1 less head to add to the coming 8.2% unemployment, capishe? :p :p

Yang Banyak tahu latotupaiplease keep me updated with the info so I can share the reality of the recession with my students.

Cheers, m

Sukdershan
06-01-2009, 03:15 PM
2009 ECONOMY PREDICTION BY PROFESSIONS



What will the economy be like in 2009? Will it recover? Will it fall further? We asked representatives of every major professional group to sum up their members' opinions in a single sentence. The results are in.



§ The Air Traffic Controllers' Association said: "We reckon the whole thing is up in the air."



§ The Archaeologists' Society said: "The economy will dig itself into the ground."



§ The Air Pilots' Association said: "We will shortly be encountering a period of turbulence."



§ The Automobile Association said: "We're giving it the green light."



§ The Society of Blacksmiths said: "We're going to get hammered."



§ The Botanists ' Society said: "The problems extend right down to the roots!"



§ The Bricklayers' Union said: "It's going to hit a wall."



§ The Chiropractors' Association said: "The important thing is to relax and let everything click into place."



§ The Clockmakers' Society said: "It will tick over at first, but then wind down."



§ The Association of Courier Companies said: "It'll get there, but take longer than you think."



§ The Society of Dancers said: "We see it taking steps in the right direction."



§ The Dentists' Association said: "Now this won't hurt a bit."



§ The Electricians' Union said: "Sparks are going to fly."



§ The Entomologists' Club said: "Our members say they can detect abuzz."



§ The Farmers' Association said: "We see it growing organically from the ground up."



§ The Fire Fighters' Union said: "It'll crash and burn."



§ The Society of Florists' said: "It'll blossom at first, but will then wilt."



§ The Funeral Directors' Society said: "It's dead and buried."



§ The Geologists' Union said: "It's as solid as a rock."



§ The Hairdressers' Association said: "We're going to go long at the top but definitely short at the back and the sides."



§ The Herpetologists' Club said: "It'll snake about a bit."



§ The Human Resources Managers' Union said: "We see it downsizing."



§ The Jockey Club said: "After lagging for a length it will beat the odds by a short nose."



§ The Journalists' Union said: "It'll be SENSATIONAL."



§ The Librarians' Society said: "Returns will be late coming and will incur penalties."



§ The Lift Technicians' Union said: "We foresee a smooth descent to zero."



§ The Glider Pilots' Association said: "It'll stay up for longer than most people think."



§ Members of the Golf Club said: "It's going to be below par."



§ The Explosive Materials Institute said: "It'll go with a bang."



§ The Union of Miners said: "We see it falling into a big black hole."



§ The Musicians' Association said: "After a slow start, it will rise to a major crescendo."



§ The Union of Lumberjacks said: "Successive cuts will weaken the structure until it falls slowly to the ground with a loud crash."



§ The Flight Engineers' Union said: "There'll be a short delay for technical reasons."



§ The Interpreters' Club said: "The economy will fall, tomber, vallen, jatuh, cadere, falle or cair."



§ The Financial Analysts' Society said: "It may go up, it may go down, or it may stay the same. Can I have my bonus now please?"



§ The Marine Biologists' Institute said: "It's heading underwater."



§ The Meteorologists' Association said: "The outlook is gloomy spells with scattered storms."



§ The Petroleum Importers Society said: "It'll run out of gas."



§ The Nanotechnology Institute said: "There will be improvements, but they will be very, very small."



§ The Nuclear Scientists' Union said: "Don't worry, nothing can go wrong. Just keep repeating that."



§ The Union of Nurses said: "It'll be a bitter pill to swallow."



§ The Oceanographers' Institute said: "Trouble is coming, wave after wave of it."



§ The Ophthalmologists'' Union said: "It's hard to forecast as the top is clear but the bottom is a bit blurry."



§ The Piling Contractors' Association said: "The most important thing is to lay a firm foundation."



§ The Pilots' Society said: "We will shortly be beginning our descent."



§ The Police Officers' Club said: "It will proceed straight ahead in westerly manner before encountering disturbances counter to the maintenance of further onward progress."



§ The Property Sales Association said: "It's as safe as houses."



§ The Expectant Mothers' Society said: "You're laboring under a misconception."



§ The Society of Public Relations Officers said: "The re's going to be another massive fall or what we prefer to call a 'negative rise'."



§ The Psychiatrists' Union said: "You're all bonkers."



§ The Association of Quality Control Inspectors said: "It's a reject."



§ The Unlicensed Bus Drivers' Union said: "Hold tight, it's going to be a wild ride."



§ The Skaters' Association said: "It's on thin ice."



§ The Society of X-Ray Technicians said: "We can see right through this one."



§ The Storytellers' Society said: "It will grow like Topsy."



§ The Taxidermists' Union said: "It's totally stuffed."



§ The Teachers' Union said: "Fail. Re-take. Must try harder."



§ The Union of Time Signal Announcers said: "At the beep, the economy will go from recession to depression: Bip, Bip, Bip, Beeeeep."



§ The Urologists' Conference said: "The notion of recovery just doesn't hold water."



§ The Veterinary Surgeons' Union said: "Anyone expecting good news is barking mad."



§ The World Council of Religions said: "Heaven only knows." :)

AllUrban
06-01-2009, 03:17 PM
I love it and the timing is great! Im starting my Economics classes tomorrow, will definitely share this with my students!

Cheers, m

tupai
06-01-2009, 04:03 PM
The Amsterdam Brothel Association: "Now, everyone is well & truly screwed!"

compounding
08-01-2009, 11:59 PM
BUT they did take the necessary actions to reduce the negative impact of the recession, didn't they? But what did our government do besides the RM5 billion loaned from EPF to Valuecap? Can you think of 1 thing the gomen of Bolehland did?
wah!.. I think they read ur post... and they r trying to respond to it by planning other stimulus... :D

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/1/8/business/2970011&sec=business

Jey
09-01-2009, 12:10 AM
I love it and the timing is great! Im starting my Economics classes tomorrow, will definitely share this with my students!

Cheers, m

Where do you teach Allurban?

AllUrban
09-01-2009, 11:43 AM
Where do you teach Allurban?at the Totally Unreal College in Subang Jaya

Cheers, m

kuma
10-01-2009, 11:04 PM
Malaysia won’t go into recession, says Nor Mohamed

BUTTERWORTH, Jan 10 — (Admin note - contents removed - violation of copyrights) — Bernama

[So there you have it. Phew! What A Relief! Think i'll go to bed. Get a couple of nights of good sleep. Either way, I'll need it :rolleyes: ]

kuma
11-01-2009, 02:52 AM
[Oops! Sorry. My mistake. Apologies]

Malaysia won’t go into recession, says Nor Mohamed, yesterday in Butterworth.
READ HERE (http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/index.php/malaysia/15698-malaysia-wont-go-into-recession-says-nor-mohamed)

BUT THEN.... DPM in KT, said it can be adversely affected, if Malaysians don't...
READ HERE (http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsindex.php?id=382858)

So, will it, or will it not? Or is it conditional. Subject to how we behave and our fault all along?

xt900
19-01-2009, 09:01 AM
The Star Monday January 19, 2009
Another 45,000 hit by global slowdown


KUALA LUMPUR: Some 45,000 employees in the manufacturing sector will go on leave soon as most factories will shut down for the Chinese New Year celebrations.

Human Resources Minister Datuk Dr S. Subramaniam said factories would stop operations for two to three weeks and employers would ask the workers to take either paid or unpaid leave.

“This (shutdown) is because of a drop in demand. And so, the factories have to temporarily terminate their workers,” he told reporters after opening the Agro Explosion 2009 Seminar & Workshop yesterday.

He said that as of Jan 12, some 14,000 people had been retrenched. However, there were also some 15,000 vacancies in various sectors registered at the ministry.

On the National Union of Bank Employees and Malaysian Trade Union Congress opposing the Government’s plan to have a pension scheme for private sector employees through the Employees Provident Fund, Dr Subramaniam said it was due to a misunderstanding.

“The ministry is thinking about senior citizens who can no longer work and have used up their EPF money. We need a system to help them,” he said.