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ysgst
12-08-2008, 09:49 PM
Can anyone share why USD is going up?

Nowiam
13-08-2008, 12:01 PM
Can anyone share why USD is going up?

Anyone Share ... hmm, let me see, I try

Why should it NOT go up?
Dollar goes up and dollar goes down, stock goes up stock goes down, gold goes up gold goes down - but over time long time it going up or down compared to one month ago, one year ago five years ago etc?

Are you SURE it is going up? In which time horizon are we talking about?

I think if you read many of pywong's referred links you will get the idea. Your question is a loaded or leading question and you need to frame it better.

birdy
13-08-2008, 03:50 PM
Anyone Share ... hmm, let me see, I try

Why should it NOT go up?
Dollar goes up and dollar goes down, stock goes up stock goes down, gold goes up gold goes down - but over time long time it going up or down compared to one month ago, one year ago five years ago etc?
Wow.. very deep explanation indeed... :D

Well.. from what I see, the rise is actually temporary trend due to high demand of USD last week. However, there is an anticipation that it will climb further to 3.34 or 3.35 before coming down back. The reason I said this is short term is because the US economy is currently in the spotlight and the currency strength has direct correlation with the economy status.

Having said that.. I ain't forex experts so please take it with a pinch of salt. :D

pywong
14-08-2008, 02:02 AM
Anyone Share ... hmm, let me see, I try

Why should it NOT go up?
Dollar goes up and dollar goes down, stock goes up stock goes down, gold goes up gold goes down - but over time long time it going up or down compared to one month ago, one year ago five years ago etc?

Are you SURE it is going up? In which time horizon are we talking about?

I think if you read many of pywong's referred links you will get the idea. Your question is a loaded or leading question and you need to frame it better.
Good explanation, Nowaim. Could be the last hurrah before the crash. We haven't seen a big one in our lifetime. Maybe we are "lucky" this time round.

Nowiam
14-08-2008, 08:59 AM
Well.. from what I see, the rise is actually temporary trend due to high demand of USD last week. However, there is an anticipation that it will climb further to 3.34 or 3.35 before coming down back. The reason I said this is short term is because the US economy is currently in the spotlight and the currency strength has direct correlation with the economy status.


That is a valid observation, birdy, but may I respectfully say it is a 'limited' viewpoint. When analysing such markets, one is fooling oneself when making such statements.

Example, someone may ask us then, 'Why got high demand last week?'
or 'Anticipatation to climb further based on what reason?'

This kind of mental picture may cause a trader to reason, anticipate and predict the market and one day meet The Black Swan, and therefore meet the fate of Long Term Capital and all such of their ilk. They were phd professors with a bank of computers and they met the Black Swan which squashed them flat.

One needs to move beyond such statements to see the reality beyond the picture the biased media painted for us.

birdy
14-08-2008, 09:59 AM
That is a valid observation, birdy, but may I respectfully say it is a 'limited' viewpoint. When analysing such markets, one is fooling oneself when making such statements.

Example, someone may ask us then, 'Why got high demand last week?'
or 'Anticipatation to climb further based on what reason?'

This kind of mental picture may cause a trader to reason, anticipate and predict the market and one day meet The Black Swan, and therefore meet the fate of Long Term Capital and all such of their ilk. They were phd professors with a bank of computers and they met the Black Swan which squashed them flat.

One needs to move beyond such statements to see the reality beyond the picture the biased media painted for us.
I agreed with you Nowiam, what I try to explain to the thread owner is in simple term..of course everything has a 'Why' to it... So, if I were to explain that ... it would be very long winded.

gark
14-08-2008, 10:59 PM
Can anyone share why USD is going up?

Well everything goes up or down is due to the basics of supply and demand. US dollars went up because of good demand, all the assets locked up in the commodities, energy and Euro are being liquidated to be invested in the US in dollars. This temporary demand created a pricing 'premium' to the dollar. But I feel that the US market is still holding a lot of sub-prime baggage and have more room to fall. ;)

pywong
15-08-2008, 09:19 AM
Maybe this will help:

Even Chris Powell, of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, agrees with me and says, in a pithy phrase that should congeal your blood at the tragic implications, "There are no markets anymore…only interventions."

Ed Steer of Casey Research tells me that we are not alone, and presents a commentary by Peter Degraaf and posted at Bill Murphy's lemetropolecafe.com, who "doesn't mind admitting that (technical analysis) is pretty useless in the face of this kind of intervention."

What kind of intervention? How about foreign central banks suddenly plowing a staggering $28 billion into buying U.S. debt last week, and stuffing the enormous haul of government and agency debt into their accounts at the Fed itself, taking their total ownership of government and agency debt to $2.4 trillion! At a lousy 5% interest, this is $120 billion in cash that we are shipping out of the country per year to these guys, just in interest payments!

And why are these foreigners doing this? James Turk at goldmoney.com explains "When central banks intervene in the currency markets, they exchange their currency for dollars. Central banks then use the dollars they acquire to buy US government debt instruments so that they can earn interest on their money. The debt instruments central banks acquire are held in custody for them at the Federal Reserve, which reports this amount weekly."

This would, then, explain why the dollar shot up last week, out of nowhere, for no reason that I can think of other than that all the alternative currencies suck even worse! Hahaha! What a world!

http://news.goldseek.com/RichardDaughty/1218693840.php

Nowiam
15-08-2008, 10:05 AM
Maybe this will help:

Even Chris Powell, of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, agrees with me and says, in a pithy phrase that should congeal your blood at the tragic implications, "There are no markets anymore…only interventions."

Ed Steer of Casey Research tells me that we are not alone, and presents a commentary by Peter Degraaf and posted at Bill Murphy's lemetropolecafe.com, who "doesn't mind admitting that (technical analysis) is pretty useless in the face of this kind of intervention."

What kind of intervention? How about foreign central banks suddenly plowing a staggering $28 billion into buying U.S. debt last week, and stuffing the enormous haul of government and agency debt into their accounts at the Fed itself, taking their total ownership of government and agency debt to $2.4 trillion! At a lousy 5% interest, this is $120 billion in cash that we are shipping out of the country per year to these guys, just in interest payments!

And why are these foreigners doing this? James Turk at goldmoney.com explains "When central banks intervene in the currency markets, they exchange their currency for dollars. Central banks then use the dollars they acquire to buy US government debt instruments so that they can earn interest on their money. The debt instruments central banks acquire are held in custody for them at the Federal Reserve, which reports this amount weekly."

This would, then, explain why the dollar shot up last week, out of nowhere, for no reason that I can think of other than that all the alternative currencies suck even worse! Hahaha! What a world!

http://news.goldseek.com/RichardDaughty/1218693840.php

pywong,

This is part of what one can infer, and one of several reasons why it is dangerous to attempt to anticipate, predict, and reason the markets - especially the forex markets.

Also gark states also "all the assets locked up in the commodities, energy and Euro are being liquidated to be invested in the US in dollars", but why the assets are being liquidated?

If one asks the reason there is always one, and to go from that to another reason, and then to the effects, amongst all the many elements of market, almost suicide if one puts their money on this kind of drivers.

I only stated in my first post that the owner of thread should better frame his question first, as we do not understand the question in the fundamental we cannot answer it except to attempt point him to a certain way of thinking.

You probably agree, Learning to Think, is more important that rote reading and learning from mass media. Be careful that GATA is also a kind of mass media now as they get bigger and bigger.