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Raikonen
19-12-2006, 09:23 PM
Fiddling while Bolehland burns

http://malaysia-today.net/blog2006/corridors.php?itemid=1393

There is the economic theory that business cycles moves a full circle for every 10 years or so. WE have the oil crisis in the mid 1970s, recession in the 1985 and the financial crisis in 1997. No doubt perhaps the Internet era has increased the productivity of the nations and especially US who drives the global economy together with the emergence of China.

But sooner or later macroeconomic shocks will tilt the global economy into arecession. My guess it will be sooner rather than later probably in 2008. For malaysia hopefully it wun be a case of stagflation with slow growth, rising inflation, high oil prices and weak labour markets. Already inflation is rearing its ugly head in bolehland with growth moderating. High oil prices remained a concern although it has dropped considerably in the past months.

It would be wise to prepare oneself for the coming rough times especially when our Caesar is still having his nap :mad:

mark.eleven
19-12-2006, 09:28 PM
Today's sharp fall in SET signs of another financial crisis coming?

Raikonen
19-12-2006, 09:37 PM
Yeah the Thai exhange dropped to a 2 year low due to the govt measures that investors will have to keep their money in Thailand for at least a year or face stiff financial penalties. The new regulation affects all sums over $20,000 not linked to trade or foreign direct investment. Well that will definately affect the hot money flow and i aint surprised that it's a bloodbath in the SET now...

dun think it will be any contagion effect.

orchipalar
19-12-2006, 09:39 PM
Err buddies...this country would sink into deeper recessions than anyone has ever experienced before...when it reaches the bottom of the drying wells... (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/HC10Ae03.html)towards the end of the decade...before 2010.

birdy
19-12-2006, 11:55 PM
There is a pattern known something like '11 years cycle, there is one big incident happened in M'sia' .... Anyone heard of this? Could this give the sign of next recession?

munity
20-12-2006, 12:03 AM
Err...the year of the ox could be a hard-laboured year.

bslee
20-12-2006, 12:32 AM
Jeez!.. its like many are becoming superstitious..just work hard lah!..do your best to achieve your own goals!. Even feng shui says you're in charge of at least one-third of your own luck.. so get down to it!. Cheers! ;)

Choon1980
20-12-2006, 02:32 AM
High oil prices remained a concern although it has dropped considerably in the past months

We went up from UDS 20+ a barrel to 70+ in just 3 - 4 years. A 10 buck drop can hardly be considerable. 60 dollars a barrel was unimaginable 3 years ago.

In addition to your points, I think the next global recession will be caused by the US Dollar devaluation. Imagine if China decides to just call in all those debts tomorrow. There'll probably be more people jumping from buildings in one day than 1929...

Blue Jasmine
26-12-2006, 03:24 PM
We went up from UDS 20+ a barrel to 70+ in just 3 - 4 years. A 10 buck drop can hardly be considerable. 60 dollars a barrel was unimaginable 3 years ago.

In addition to your points, I think the next global recession will be caused by the US Dollar devaluation. Imagine if China decides to just call in all those debts tomorrow. There'll probably be more people jumping from buildings in one day than 1929...


By that time ask the gov to help la...since they talk so much!!!

bslee
26-12-2006, 03:44 PM
By that time ask the gov to help la...since they talk so much!!!

I must say its a futile thought for most....period! :rolleyes:

firefox
26-12-2006, 04:42 PM
when will be the next recession?

Not thinking abt it, just thinking of the present and enjoying life eating and shopping like other millions of Malaysians. we will cross the bridge when it comes...positive thinking is good for your well being ;)

Alfred88
28-12-2006, 11:43 PM
He BIG BAD AND UGLY recession coming to hit Malaysia is inevitable. For the past several years since 1997 crash Malaysia government has made many wrong moves. The total economic goes hand in hand with many issue like education, religion and politics, etc.

1. In 1998, Riggit was peg to the dollars. This means the dollar was protecting Riggit but everyone knows this is only a temporary measure. You cannot peg your currency to another current unless your economic is totally or majority relays on that country and unless you see it’s up and down is in direct connection towards your country. The Malaysian market is no way relaying on the US market. The government take an initiative that could only fix the problem temporary and but actually creating a bigger problem down the line. This sort of problem fixing is a common school of thought by Malaysian.
2. Since 1997, Government uses EPF to not only bail out fail companies but also to tried to earn it’s money away at the same time bail certain companies out. It launches a program that you are able to use EPF funds to purchase computers and go to privately own schools. By end of 2000, the EPF nearly runs out of money to further the program aggressively.
3. In 2002, education department realise that passing rate of their population, especially the Malays, are all time low. It is decided that all school education system be move 1 step back. Meaning Form 5 be studying Form 4 material instead. This means lower quality vs. quantities of O level. Since during that time to the Government, it is necessary to have more people qualified for jobs verse maintaining the standards.
4. During the same year, the education department also fully relax its education standards on privately own school and drive more private own college and university to open. This result in influx of highly “certified” individual who process B. degrees, MBAs and even PhDs but cannot speak a sentence of good English.
5. During recession period, the government continue to approve aggressive infrastructures program, unfortunately, these programs were many plan years ago, therefore, it mostly out of date by the time they initiate the program. Many roads and highway was build but shortly become redundant due to increase amount of vehicle on the road. The main reason for the go ahead is to “show” the people that economic is not as bad as it seem. Now, the people are paying for that “show’ by hike in tolls and petrol taxes.
6. Since 2001, the government supported proton and others aggressively by ensuring loans are easily approve with low down payment. Results in huge deficit in Per Capital Income as majority of people were unable to pay their loan.
7. Since 2001, millions of dollars were loan to bumiputras for overseas and local education, since they decide that bumiputras were in dire need of really certified education. Unfortunately, most were unable to pay, unwilling to pay as they know bumiputra can very easily get away with it. Worst case, they can walk in any bank and take another loan to offset the previous one as there are many types of loan available for bumiputras.
8. Until todate, the government still continue to promote Halad products to be exported and gives out huge loans to individual and companies that produce Halad products. The only countries that they can actually export to are of Middle East. Shortly, those profitable good were taken over by locally (Middle East) made. Without shipping and storage cost, those locally made were easy to compete against Malaysian companies. Those Halad products, which are mainly food products, fail to compete. Result, companies close down, debt written off.
9. Being a Muslim country, and with parties like PAS. Many profitable changes, laws and economic woes have to be undermined. Investors of such like are limited as it is. Red tapes and corruption making it worst. No casino, no theme park, no this, no that, etc.
10. Being the only Muslim country in South East Asia that relays on economic, it is sad that the Government does not realise that begin Muslim is of great disadvantage when comes to exporting goods or trading with western countries. As they already freaking out when they hear the word Muslim.

I believe the list can go on and on. As for US economic, they will surely find a way out. Of cause whatever way the Bush administration fine will be to the advantage of the American government and surely to screw the rest of the world. Malaysia being peg to it trouble just like the Riggit peg to USD will hit 2 times as bad as other countries. Everyone knows that social security is already bankrupt. Everyone knows why it attacks Iraq. Oil…. Oil is smell, feel and slip well then US dollars. Forget whatever WMD the US claim. The only WMD the Iraq has is 70% of world’s oil reserve. That kind of WMD must not fall into another one’s hand. The American found a reason to take Iraq, so they did. Just like Asia currency. Soros find that it’s ripe for taking; he will take it without a blink of an eye.

Being Malaysian, being Singaporean, being Hong Kee, being Chinese or Thailand doesn’t really matters anymore. It’s being Asia matters. The government must open its eyes and team up with other Asia countries. Together the 5 tigers, the economic power are beyond Soros, beyond America. The Japanese realise this many years ago, so did Taiwan and Singapore recent years. Unless Malaysia can set aside selfishness and religion. It will not ever succeed in protecting its economic.

Of cause even if Japan and other countries realise it is not going to help. So long as 1 country does come in, whatever happen to it will affect others and it is closely link. Instead of seeing that Malaysia is economically link to rest of Asia, The government blame the rest of Asia for what happen and peg itself to the USD. This is sad and pathetic!

Property unsold, car re-procession at all time high, huge amount of debt. This is the same situation during the 1980s. Of cause, the debt amount is at least twice as big. Resulting is the cause twice as hard.

All we can do now is pray for Malaysia and hope after this coming recession the Government will finally do what is best for the people not just bumis.

IMHO, recession is already here. Just that the hard part is not.

Sigh,

My two cents

kwchang
29-12-2006, 12:16 AM
Alfred,
I am sorry I found it very tough going through your essay. Either you reduce your typographical errors or stop pretending to have bad English.

bugbear
29-12-2006, 01:32 AM
I do tend to agree with alfred that recession is already here. Everything looks so rosy on the surface now but deep down, I am afraid there is a gapping void waiting to give rise to an almighty big sinkhole one fine day. :(

Choon1980
29-12-2006, 02:45 AM
The only WMD the Iraq has is 70% of world’s oil reserve.

This statement is completely false. Even OPEC itself only has 2/3 of world oil reserves.

Alfred88
29-12-2006, 03:23 PM
This statement is completely false. Even OPEC itself only has 2/3 of world oil reserves.

Maybe I got the 70% wrong, but they do indeed has the major oil reserve. But OPEC doesn't has 2/3 world oil reserves. The figure has long been change as new oil found and depliciting amount of OPEC's oil amoung it's members. Most of it's members current oil reserve will not last through the next 20 or 30 years. This has been widely know through CNN and National Geography.

Alfred88
29-12-2006, 03:24 PM
Alfred,
I am sorry I found it very tough going through your essay. Either you reduce your typographical errors or stop pretending to have bad English.

Ya Ya no pretend. Actually I have bad english mah! :D

Choon1980
29-12-2006, 10:21 PM
But OPEC doesn't has 2/3 world oil reserves. The figure has long been change as new oil found and depliciting amount of OPEC's oil amoung it's members. Most of it's members current oil reserve will not last through the next 20 or 30 years. This has been widely know through CNN and National Geography.

It all depends on

(1) the definition on what constitutes as oil reserves. Do oil reserves consist of both unconventional and conventional oil resources, or just conventional oil? If tar sands and oil shale contribute to oil reserves, then no, OPEC would fall short of 2/3. Heck, Bush will only need to secure an invasion of Canada to get at Alberta.

(2) whether the Middle East countries are "cooking the books" on how much oil they really have. After a quota was imposed on how much oil they could produce, a lot of ME countries reported HUGE increases in their oil reserves without explaining what new discoveries warranted this increase. Up till this day, we literally have to take their word for it that there's so-and-so much oil in their ground.

The general consensus is that OPEC does have ~66% of world oil reserves. Whether they REALLY have it is anyone's guess.

The main problem isn't so much as oil reserves as it is oil production. We could all be sitting on a gajillion barrels of oil, but it won't do us good if we can't suck it all up fast enough. The difference between world oil consumption and production has been shrinking for years now.

What happens when we try to consume more oil than we produce?


This result in influx of highly “certified” individual who process B. degrees, MBAs and even PhDs but cannot speak a sentence of good English.


Ya Ya no pretend. Actually I have bad english mah!

Urm, you might want to fix it soon?

pepsi
30-12-2006, 01:17 PM
I do tend to agree with alfred that recession is already here. Everything looks so rosy on the surface now but deep down, I am afraid there is a gapping void waiting to give rise to an almighty big sinkhole one fine day. :(
Yup, it's here alright . We can see the subtle signs eg. crime rate seem more rampant than usual. Business people also see the signs.
I do however agree with BSLee, how we fare will depend on us.
Better start preparing our reserves while we still can.
Yes, we can still be optimistic, but be frugal.
Sigh, another matter to worry about is the enviroment and our eco system. :(