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ksj_cool
06-12-2005, 05:18 PM
Don' t know how true his prediction is but take note.

Predicted Tsunami...

Quake and tsunami predicted in S'pore & M'sia

BANGKOK: Thailand's now iconic meteorologist, Dr Smith Dharmasaroja, who in Year 1998 predicted a killer tsunami would hit Thailand one day & was ignored, said S'pore & M'sia were also in danger from a future earthquake and tsunami.

"I believe the epicentre of future quakes will shift northwards, north of the Andaman & Nicobar islands."

"A big earthquake with a more northerly epicentre than the Dec 26 quake will generate a tsunami which will have a more direct route down to the Straits of Malacca, swamping S'pore and M'sia" during the month of december 05' and january 06'.

"As the sea passage narrows, more water will build up and the wave willbecome bigger.
S'pore is relatively low-lying & quite flat, and would be badly affected.Remember, in Dec, the tsunami was 30m high at Banda Aceh. At Khao Lak, it was 16m high" he said.

Dr Smith, 70, retired as chief of Thailand's Meteorological Department well before last Dec's disaster. But before that, he had warned first in a speech and then in a memo thatThailand's Andaman coast was at risk from a killer tsunami.

Tragically his warning, although widely reported by the media, was ignored. Government officials, fearful of tourists staying away, branded him a cranky and dangerous man. The authorities in Phuket castigated him & said he was not welcome to visit.

After the tsunami, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra recalled him and made him the chairman of a committee tasked with developing a national disaster warning centre and strategy.

"I'm not happy that I have made the right prediction" he said. "Nobody can accurately predict an earthquake; you can only assume from historical data" he added. He said big naturaldisasters occur in 80 year to 100 year cycles, apparently randomly across the world.

"If you speak out too much, forecast too much, you will get a lot of criticism, from government agencies, the tourism sector and so forth" he added.

Explaining the northward shift of future epicentres, Dr Smith stressed "This is no joke. I would like you to put this message out to S'pore and M'sia."

A researcher working on the hypothesis, who did not want to be named, said the research was on-going and final results were not yet ready.

Dr Smith said "I have seen the simulations that indicate this and they look believable. From my own experience, it is possible." Only a few days ago, there was a 6.1 quake in the Andaman sea near the Nicobar islands, which is about 321.8km north of the Dec 26 quake.

tan_r
06-12-2005, 11:28 PM
And from where, may I ask, did you get this news?

Knight1993
06-12-2005, 11:58 PM
i think its e-mail,coz i received an e-mai from someone that dr.xxxxx prdicted a tsunami on december and bla bla bla

kevin23
07-12-2005, 12:02 AM
bolehland betta prepare itself !!

ksj_cool
07-12-2005, 08:46 AM
I received a mail ...btw by friends already knew about this story, they said they read it in the newspapers!

tan_r
07-12-2005, 11:42 AM
I'm sorry to say this but that email is a hoax. The link to the original report is blogged here (http://mydailynuggets.blogspot.com/2005/12/stop-this-tsunami.html).

orchipalar
07-12-2005, 12:24 PM
Err...Orchi's holiday in Penang was cut short by this Tsunami hoax?...what a bummer! :rolleyes:

cherry
07-12-2005, 12:38 PM
Why they always perdict bad things happen on Boxing Day? I think they don't want people to go shopping for the end of season sale is it? :p

cactuc1
08-12-2005, 12:31 AM
Tsunami SMS making waves

PUTRAJAYA: The public should not believe e-mail or SMS warning of a tsunami striking Malaysia between now and January.

Deputy Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Datuk Kong Cho Ha said no one could predict an earthquake or its magnitude.

“It’s possible to say there will be a major earthquake in Tokyo, for instance. But it is impossible to know whether it will happen next year or 100 years from now.

“It’s true that some experts, after analysing data, have predicted that the epicentre of (the next) earthquake in our region will be further north, towards the Andaman and Nicobar islands and that this will cause greater effect in the Straits of Malacca.

“But it’s irresponsible to cause panic by spreading any message stating the exact time that a tsunami will occur,” he told reporters after launching a seminar on e-community by Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia here yesterday.

“Anybody getting messages warning of a tsunami over the next few weeks should ignore them. They're not true,” said Kong.

A few weeks ago, Thai seismologist and meteorologist Dr Smith Dharmasaroja warned that Malaysia and Singapore were in danger as the epicentres of quakes had been moving northwards to the Andaman and Nicobar islands. The Dec 26 tsunami occurred off the coast of Sumatra.

Five years ago, Dr Dharmasaroja, then head of the Thai Meteorological Department, predicted that a tsunami would hit Phuket, but the government did not take his warning seriously and called him a mad man.

Today, the 70-year-old has been recalled by Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and made the head of the Thailand National Disaster Warning Centre, which has been putting a tsunami early warning system in place.

An email, quoting Dr Dharmasaroja, has been making the rounds in Malaysia since last week warning people to stay away from beaches in December and January.

UKM deputy vice-chancellor (research and innovation) Prof Dr Ibrahim Komoo said he received two messages via SMS over the past few weeks warning of a tsunami in Malaysia.

Dr Ibrahim, an expert in geology who has conducted research on earthquakes at Akademi Sains, said people should not believe such messages unless they were issued by the Meteorological Services Department.

source:- http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2005/12/7/nation/12789790&sec=nation

cactuc1
08-12-2005, 12:34 AM
If happen , then we can test the tsunami early warning system..

Keke..See whether people receive the warning after or before the tsunami hit the beach.

uchangeng
08-12-2005, 08:28 AM
We all know in India, you have thousands upon thousands of Mahaguru, Maheguru, Hermits, Yogies and self-profess Holymen(one of those even worshipped here in Malaysia). Non of these so call divine beings was able to predict the devastating earth quake that hit India in the 90s. Millions perished in that great quake, non was able to predict it. Of course you heard a lot of stratements made by these holymen after the quake. Things like "oh, now things seem to fall in place in our Astro charts after the quake.". Utter rubbish!

kwchang
09-12-2005, 12:16 AM
Not exactly,
what that guy did was to use a lot of inferential observations of past occurances and he did look at cycles of quakes. Basically, the tectonic plate movements are known facts. With some knowledge, one can actually determine the pressure buildups of the opposing plates under the sea and by a good estimate, say that if it is likely the builtup pressures would result in a shift of the plates and thus an earthquake.

However, at the other end of the arguement, the seismologists have been "expecting" a major disaster at the San Andres fault line in California that caused the disastrous San Francisco earthquake decades ago. It has not happened and everyone is still waiting....

LMei
21-12-2005, 02:15 PM
Here's an interview with Dr Smith Dharmasaroja on his prediction...

http://www.nst.com.my/Current_News/NST/Sunday/Frontpage/20051218081223/Article/indexb_html

KelvC
21-12-2005, 09:18 PM
“Anybody getting messages warning of a tsunami over the next few weeks should ignore them. They're not true,” said Kong.
Now we have the "Cry Wolf" situation, by the time the real warning does comes in via SMS as proposed in earlier this year, nobody would heed them. By then, it's too late.

Now, how to varify these smses? Get the RELEVANT authorities to sign the sms off (so who is in charge?).

bugbear
22-12-2005, 09:00 PM
I think this is rather premature to predict another tsunami. It is just a lot of hot air and frankly there is no need to alarmed the people.

alexhay
23-12-2005, 08:41 AM
why does people want to predict natural disaster. if people can predict, then it wont be name as natural disaster. better still name is a fix disaster.

Yes, its right to predict but at least dont make a big fuss or havoc about it. I dont believe in such prediction. What happen is all on human nature. Everyone put the blame on Act of God but its NOT. Its the act of human.

For example, the fire at Sumatra. Is this a disaster ? Yes it is, but this is because of some people wanted to clear part of their land just only with a matchstick.

All of this people want to be famous overnight by their prediction. If they are good with their prediction, why not predict themselves striking lottery. That would be better right ?

mon
23-12-2005, 09:10 AM
Not exactly,
what that guy did was to use a lot of inferential observations of past occurances and he did look at cycles of quakes. Basically, the tectonic plate movements are known facts. With some knowledge, one can actually determine the pressure buildups of the opposing plates under the sea and by a good estimate, say that if it is likely the builtup pressures would result in a shift of the plates and thus an earthquake.

However, at the other end of the arguement, the seismologists have been "expecting" a major disaster at the San Andres fault line in California that caused the disastrous San Francisco earthquake decades ago. It has not happened and everyone is still waiting....

You are right Chang. Since science cannot predict when the earthquakes would take place, they surely could not determine exactly when a tsunami hazard would be generated.

Some tsunamis give residents only a matter of few minutes to run for cover to safety.

But.. with the aid of historical records of tsunamis and numerical models, scientists could get an idea where tsunamis are most likely to be generated. But would the predictions be accurate and timely?? No false alarms?